Joe Biden could win big in South Carolina and score a string of victories on Super Tuesday and still fail to halt Bernie Sanders’s march to the Democratic nomination.
The Democratic Party awards convention-nominating delegates proportionally. Those rules offer Sanders an opportunity to maintain the healthy delegate lead he has already built even with a loss to Biden on Saturday in South Carolina. With Super Tuesday coming three days later, Sanders could emerge as unstoppable in the delegate chase, even if Biden slows the front-runner’s momentum by racking up impressive wins among the 16 primaries being held.
“Sanders is positioned to do well both organizationally and financially,” said Josh Putnam, a political scientist whose blog, FrontloadingHQ, specializes in analysis of party nomination rules. “Biden may be able to use a South Carolina win to springboard into Super Tuesday, but his case, and likelihood, for a large delegate haul hinges on any momentum he gains and his name recognition more than organizational bona fides or financial backing.”
After Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada voted, Sanders had accumulated 45 pledged delegates toward the 1,991 needed to secure the Democratic nomination on first ballot on the convention floor in Milwaukee. Pete Buttigieg is a distant second with 25 delegates, followed by Biden with 15, Elizabeth Warren with eight, and Amy Klobuchar with seven. Another 54 delegates are up for grabs in South Carolina.
Should Sanders lose to Biden there, as recent polls suggest, he could still walk away with delegates thanks to Democratic rules. The same is true of the Super Tuesday primaries, which are worth nearly 40% of all available pledged delegates.
The party distributes delegates proportionally to any candidate who wins 15% of the statewide primary vote, with another batch allocated per congressional district to candidates who meet the 15% threshold locally. Sanders is positioned to easily surpass 15% in nearly every consequential Super Tuesday primary. This means that win or lose, Sanders will be picking up more delegates, making it tough for Biden to dent his lead. And in delegate-rich California and Texas, fresh surveys show Sanders in first place and leading Biden handily.
Democratic operatives point out that, historically, it is highly unusual for the candidate who amasses the most delegates in the early primary states to relinquish the lead. That does not bode well for Biden, the former vice president, although he continues to attract high profile Democratic endorsements.
Michael Bloomberg is betting heavily against history and could be a factor on Super Tuesday.
The former New York City mayor skipped the early primaries and has spent nearly $500 million in a campaign for the 16 states and U.S. territories that will vote on Tuesday as well as the rest that follow. The money has been poured into television and digital advertising and robust field and data programs across several states that usually do not receive much attention.
“Our campaign is building a nationwide organization to win in the primary and defeat Donald Trump in November,” said Dan Kanninen, states director for the Bloomberg campaign.
The Democratic and Republican nominees are usually decided by the time the primaries reach a vast majority of the states.
