Surprise! States with the most stringent COVID mandates had the highest unemployment rates

According to a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private businesses in the most Democratic states and jurisdictions in the nation disproportionately mandated that employees be vaccinated for the coronavirus before working on-site. However, the share of private employers across the country mandating their workers wear masks while on the job was even greater — nearly six in ten.

About 17% of the nation’s private businesses mandated that employees get vaccinated, but that number was not homogenous. It was above 30% in California, Hawaii, and Washington, D.C. It was nearly 30% in New York, but just 4% in North Dakota.

Generally, the bluest areas of the country had the greatest share of businesses requiring vaccination. And unsurprisingly, the states with more businesses mandating vaccines or masks had higher unemployment rates.

The real surprise, however, is that mask mandates are more predictive than vaccine mandates of a state’s high unemployment.

The BLS data comes with some caveats. Although the share of businesses surveyed should be representational, the BLS asked whether businesses had imposed vaccine or mask mandates since the start of the pandemic, meaning that the figures provided are likely an overestimate of the current or recent mandates in place. But a quick (and very, very rudimentary) multiple regression model shows that while the causal relationship between private businesses mandating vaccines may be weak or nonexistent, mandating masks may have had a statistically significant impact on a state’s unemployment rate.

Perhaps most workers simply consider it less of a burden to get a few jabs than to wear an annoying, uncomfortable mask on a daily basis. In any case, the bluest states in the union will need a lot more than just the government getting out of the way to return their economies to normal.

For reference, all of the BLS data is included in the table below.

State % of businesses w/ mask mandate % of businesses w/ vax mandate Unemployment rate
Puerto Rico 93.9 65.8 7.5
California 75.6 32.2 6.5
Nevada 77.4 16.7 6.4
New Jersey 68.8 22.9 6.3
New York 70.6 28.3 6.2
Connecticut 68.1 19.0 5.8
District of Columbia 70.6 31.1 5.8
New Mexico 63.3 15.5 5.8
Alaska 53.9 13.0 5.7
Hawaii 83.8 31.3 5.7
Michigan 46.5 13.9 5.6
Pennsylvania 53.8 14.4 5.4
Illinois 59.8 19.6 5.3
Delaware 55.7 16.7 5.0
Maryland 63.1 22.3 5.0
Texas 54.8 13.5 5.0
Colorado 47.6 15.5 4.8
Louisiana 66.4 10.2 4.8
Rhode Island 63.1 23.7 4.8
Maine 54.2 15.9 4.7
Mississippi 51.9 7.5 4.5
Ohio 46.2 10.6 4.5
Washington 69.8 17.6 4.5
Florida 56.9 15.1 4.4
Arizona 51.3 13.8 4.1
Oregon 67.5 12.0 4.1
Kentucky 52.6 9.9 3.9
Massachusetts 62.4 24.2 3.9
Tennessee 49.9 9.3 3.8
North Carolina 59.6 14.3 3.7
West Virginia 52.7 7.8 3.7
South Carolina 52.7 9.7 3.5
Kansas 42.0 8.5 3.3
Missouri 52.2 9.9 3.3
Wyoming 35.9 7.5 3.3
Virginia 62.1 18.8 3.2
Alabama 57.6 9.5 3.1
Arkansas 56.8 12.5 3.1
Minnesota 40.4 10.2 3.1
North Dakota 28.8 4.3 3.1
Wisconsin 44.7 12.8 2.8
Indiana 44.8 9.8 2.7
Georgia 54.9 12.7 2.6
New Hampshire 45.8 12.9 2.6
South Dakota 27.2 4.4 2.6
Montana 31.8 6.1 2.5
Vermont 47.9 16.9 2.5
Idaho 38.5 7.3 2.4
Iowa 33.3 6.5 2.4
Oklahoma 42.6 9.4 2.3
Utah 43.5 10.7 1.9
Nebraska 35.2 7.0 1.7

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