Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump will announce his choice for a running mate on Friday at 11a.m. This, of course, gives us one last chance to wildly speculate about who it might be.
Maxim Lott and John Stossel’s betting odds put Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as the top pick at around 60 percent at the time of this writing (the highest percentage any potential veep pick gets on either side of the aisle). The odds are updated every five minutes, and Pence chance’s have risen and fallen in the past day, as Trump dined with him, campaigned with him and met with him at his home in the Hoosier State.
So the smart money’s on Pence, but why? He has pretty solid conservative credentials, but what does he really bring to the ticket? Granted, Trump’s severe unpopularity could put Indiana in play, but if the Republican Party is worried about this near-solid red state at this stage of the game, it’s time to throw in the towel.
Pence has met with Trump multiple times in the past few weeks, but he is also running for re-election. And Politico reported Thursday morning that the Indiana governor has reserved ad time for his re-election bid in the two weeks following the conventions. He could always cancel that buy if he’s named Trump’s running mate, and this could certainly all be for show (this is Donald Trump, after all). Further, Pence’s deadline to drop out of the gubernatorial election is noon Friday, conveniently one hour after Trump is set to announce his VP pick.
The GOP field this year was incredibly diverse despite Democrats’ claims that Republicans are bigots. Of the 17 candidates, Republicans had one woman, two Hispanics, one African-American and one Indian-American. And three of the non-white-male candidates made it to the final five.
Conversely, Democrats had five (six if you count Larry Lessig, which I don’t because he wasn’t in the debates) candidates and four were white males. To be fair though, Republicans chose a white male and Democrats chose a woman.
So Trump picking another white male is going to be excoriated by the press. It shouldn’t matter, but it does. Just because of this, it would be better for him to pick New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (but the two are feuding) or Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin.
The best choice — South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley — has stayed far, far away from Trump.
Trump is now left with a bunch of white guys as his picks — and based on who he has met with in recent days and weeks, none of them are inspiring.
Pence may have conservative credentials and be the governor of a state, but he’s no rising star. As far as governors go, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is (or was, until he ran for president) a more promising prospect. Given Christie’s poor track record of defending Trump’s comments, he’s probably not what the New York businessman needs or wants on the campaign trail.
The second most likely choice at this point is Newt Gingrich. I do love listening to that man speak about ideas (though I’m sick of his Six Sigma talk), but at this point, why? He hasn’t been in office for nearly two decades and is more of a Fox News commentator than anything else. Trump might as well pick Sean Hannity if that’s what he cares about.
Beyond that, what does Gingrich bring to the table? Can he deliver any state? Does he temper Trump’s bombastic approach? Is he even seen as credible or pragmatic anymore (moon base, anyone)?
Another top choice at the moment is Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. As with Pence, Sessions is unlikely to be much help geographically. Like Pence, he isn’t that well known. Sessions’ stances on immigration and trade are nearly identical to Trump’s (they weren’t always), so perhaps he could speak more eloquently about the topic and fears caused by Trump’s rhetoric. But the focus is always going to be on Trump.
Trump has said he wouldn’t choose an out-of-the-box candidate. Unless he does that, however, I’m afraid his VP picks are rather boring.
I’ll go with the crowd and bet that he goes with Pence. I’m almost always wrong, but I did correctly predict the Super Bowl, so maybe 2016 is my year.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
