New poll: Cotton leads by 9 points in Arkansas

Pryor now trails Republican Rep. Tom Cotton by nearly nine points, with 40.5 percent to 49 percent, according to a new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey released Monday, with a margin of error of 2.2 percent.

Most shockingly, Cotton leads Pryor in the poll among both men and women — a rare feat among Republican Senate candidates, who this cycle have all trailed among women voters. The poll shows Cotton with a double-digit lead among men, 55 percent to 37 percent.

Overall, the poll indicates an almost impossible slog for Pryor in the final two weeks of the midterm election cycle.

“For Pryor to close the gap, a monstrous and effectively targeted turnout operation and the entrance of large numbers of new registrants into the fold are both essential,” said Dr. Jay Barth, professor of political science at Hendrix College, in an analysis of the survey.

Even when weighted for a more robust turnout by Democrats in Arkansas, the poll still found Cotton leading Pryor, 48 percent to 41 percent.

The poll, conducted Oct. 15 and 16 by landline and cell phone among 2,075 “frequent” voters, shows a dramatic improvement for Cotton since July, when the last Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll was released. At that time, Cotton led Pryor by just two points, 44 percent to 42 percent.

In an otherwise tough election year for Democrats, Pryor has knowingly faced a uniquely uphill climb to re-election, in a state where more than 60 percent of voters supported Mitt Romney in 2012.

He has sought to cast himself as independent of President Obama and his policies, while reminding voters of his family legacy in the state: Pryor’s father, David Pryor, is a former senator and governor.

But Cotton, a first-term member of Congress, has so far successfully linked Pryor to the Democratic Party and its leader. Cotton has also capitalized on national security worries among voters by touting his own military service.