Team Romney projects only a 6-8 point victory tonight, but, with a slew of new polls, including yesterday’s Suffolk University poll showing Mitt Romney up 47 percent to 27 percent over Newt Gingrich, a double-digit win seems more likely. More important than the final raw number though, is how Romney does with differing demographics across the Republican base. Only one poll, the NBC News/Marist poll, has released tables showing how the candidates are fairing with different population segments, and the results look good for Romney.
Like his win in New Hampshire, the Marist poll shows Romney winning households making $75,000 or more (49-27) and those making less than $75,000 (37-28). He is winning both the college graduate vote (44-25) and the non-college graduate vote (40-29). He is winning among Evangelicals (34-28), in the Panhandle (37-25), in central Florida (44-30), and in south Florida (49-31). Romney even wins among conservatives (47-28) and moderate Tea Party supporters (39-32). The only groups Romney loses are “strong Tea Party supporters” (27-40) and “very conservative” Republicans (24-36).
And, despite Gingrich’s calls for Rick Santorum to get out of the race, Gingrich did no better when Floridians were asked to choose again without Santorum in the field. In fact, Romney’s margin of victory went up a point from 42 percent/27 percent with Santorum, to 49 percent/33 percent without.
If Romney does pull off a double-digit victory tonight, and if the exit polls show him dominating almost all demographics as thoroughly as the Marist poll does, Gingrich’s financial backers should seriously reconsider just how much money they want to waste on subsidizing Newt’s vanity.
Campaign 2012
Delegate Count: Heading into today’s winner-take-all Florida primary which is worth 50 delegates, Mitt Romney already leads the field with 37 delegates, Newt Gingrich is second with 26, Rick Santorum is third with 14, and Ron Paul has 4.
Romney: Mitt Romney surrogates are hosting daily conference calls with reporters to push the idea that Newt Gingrich is an unstable danger to the Republican party. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, told The Washington Examiner‘s Susan Ferrechio Wednesday, “”I think Newt Gingrich at the top of the ticket scares the living daylights out of me and my colleagues. That is why Mitt Romney has a lot of endorsements from so many fresh faces.”
Gingrich: Newt Gingrich’s national political director, Martin Baker, told reporters that Newt will continue campaigning regardless of how he fares tonight. “There is a long way to go before either candidate clinches the nomination and this campaign will continue for months,” Baker said. But Stephen Hess, a former adviser to presidents Ford and Carter, says Gingrich will have to quit the race before too long “if he has any future in partisan politics. … at some point Gingrich just looks like an angry, frustrated spoilsport.”
Paul: The Christian Science Monitor reports that Ron Paul will probably win more delegates than Newt Gingrich this week, thanks to the winner-take-all format of Florida’s primary and the Maine caucuses this weekend.
Around the Bigs
The Washington Post, European leaders adopt treaty pledging debt reduction: Leaders of 25 of the 27 European Union countries adopted a new treaty yesterday that binds them to imposing caps on deficits and government debts.
The New York Times, Portugal Suffers as Loss of Confidence in Bonds Sends Yields Higher: Yields on Portuguese 10-year government bonds closed at 16.58 percent, up more than two points since Friday, as the European debt crisis spread beyond Greece.
The Los Angeles Times, Democrats in Congress step up tax-the-rich efforts: Congressional Democrats, more liberal since the 2010 elections thinned out moderates’ ranks, are embracing the populist agenda President Obama outlined in his State of the Union speech.
The New York Times, Treasury Investigates Freddie Mac Investment: The Treasury Department is investigating a report that Freddie Mac bet against homeowners’ ability to refinance their loans even as it was making it more difficult for them to do so.
USA Today, Obama green jobs program faces further investigation: House Republicans are expanding their probe into the Obama administration’s energy programs after a Labor Department audit found that the program placed just 10% of trainees in jobs after spending more than $500 million.
The Washington Examiner, O’Malley wants to add 6 percent sales tax to gasoline: Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley said Monday that he wants to end the state sales tax exemption on gasoline, which would add a 6 percent cost to every gallon, making Maryland’s gas tax the fourth-highest in the continental United States.
Righty Playbook
The American Enterprise Institute‘s Andrew Biggs notes that a new Congressional Budget Office study showing that total average compensation is 16 percent higher for federal employees than it is for private sector workers is “broadly consistent” with a study he conducted with The Heritage Foundation’s Jason Richwone earlier this year.
The Heritage Foundation‘s Romina Boccia details how Obama’s policies have weakened domestic oil and gas production.
At The Corner, Club for Growth president Chris Chocola argues that, “While the federal government should be out of the education business completely, Obama’s proposals will make a broken system worse.”
Lefty Playbook
The Washington Monthly‘s Ed Kilgore says that the Obama administration’s new contraception mandates are an acceptable assault on religious liberty since the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops “do not exactly come to the table with clean hands.”
The Huffington Post‘s Nita Chaudhary and Shaunna Thomas argue that the federal government must force everyone to pay for other people’s birth control because, “Today, 1 in 3 women has trouble affording birth control.”
Daily Kos‘ Laura Clawson calls on Democrats to reject “poison pills” buried in the latest Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill.
