2016 had been a tough year for Taiwan, the jewel of an island nation that China views as an illegitimate breakaway province. In January, it elected a new president–a progressive female law professor who takes a decidedly dim view of the Communist tyranny a few hundred miles from Taiwan’s shores. Mainland China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, was incensed by the Taiwanese people’s daring to make a democratic decision—the temerity! And so it began a campaign of collective punishment.
Tourism from the mainland, a key source of revenue for Taiwan, was severely curtailed. And Taiwan was humiliated on the international stage repeatedly. First, at Beijing’s behest, it was snubbed by ICAO. When the United Nations’ aviation safety group met in Montreal earlier this year, Taiwan wasn’t even allowed in as a guest. Then the democratic island of 23 million was given the cold shoulder by INTERPOL. When the global law enforcement group got together in November, Taiwan was shut out again. Despite its remarkable achievements—creating an open, prosperous country with a robust democratic political culture, all in the shadow of an aggressive tyranny hell-bent on reclaiming it—2016 saw Taiwan become, increasingly, a Rodney Dangerfield nation, commanding little to no respect on the global stage.
And then along came Donald Trump.
On Friday, Trump conducted a phone conversation with the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen. It’s thought to be the first time that a U.S. president or president-elect has spoken directly with a Taiwanese leader since 1979. The call signals a major shift in America’s posture towards China and Taiwan.
Trump’s remarkable display of courtesy and solidarity with a beleaguered democracy will no doubt be welcomed warmly on the island. The Taiwanese are acutely, painfully aware of the lack of respect they command on the global stage. On my most recent trip there, in September, the ICAO issue came up repeatedly in discussions with figures in government and academia. Far more important, it seemed, than the technical impact of the snubbing—Taiwan’s airlines will have to rely on secondhand sources for the latest technical information, an annoyance but hardly a massive setback—was what it represented: a country unfairly maligned and ignored. Trump’s phone call shows that they will be ignored no more.
The president-elect’s legions of detractors in the media and Democratic party have of course lambasted the move. But the arguments against Trump’s phone call don’t pass the laugh test. The most common seems to be that the phone call will “anger China.” That may be true—but it’s hardly an argument at all. (Indeed, some might say that angering an aggressive human rights-denying military dictatorship is a policy feature, not a bug.) The real question is do the costs of angering China outweigh the benefits of displaying solidarity with Taiwan.
So what might the costs be? Some have fretted that China will now be “uncooperative” in reining in North Korea—as if Beijing has heretofore been super effective at halting Pyongyang’s ever-growing nuclear weapons program. Others worry that Beijing will now move to punish Taiwan—but it’s already punishing Taiwan for electing a president it doesn’t like. China’s displeasure with Taiwan has been “priced in” to the current state of affairs. Moreover, Taiwan’s president happily took (or perhaps initiated—it isn’t clear) Trump’s call. She clearly made the decision that it was worth angering Beijing.
And the benefits, meanwhile, could be significant. Ever since the Russian annexation of Crimea, it has seemed likely that Beijing will be encouraged to try to retake Taiwan. The precedent, after all, has now been set: National boundaries can be redrawn with only minimal consequences. And the parallels are stark as well—Crimea, historically, had been part of Russia as indeed Taiwan had at one point been part of China. It wasn’t that hard to envisage Chinese strongman Xi Jinping going with the “Crimea option.” That seems a lot less likely now that the U.S. president has made such a bold stand in defense of Taiwan.
There are a couple of ways Trump’s call could backfire, however. For one, there have been news reports that Trump has potential business interests in Taiwan. This, again, shows that the president elect needs to fully separate himself from the Trump Organization, as even when he pursues worthy policies they will look suspicious to some.
More worryingly, until recently, Taiwan has enjoyed quite broad support from both Democrats and Republicans. At a recent celebration in Washington marking Taiwan’s national day, former Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle was there rubbing shoulders with hawkish neoconservative intellectuals.
But Trump’s open backing of the island could now lead Democrats to abandon it. Similar things have already happened—during the presidential campaign, when Trump voiced support for gun control, Senator Dianne Feinstein appeared to disavow her own bill. The Democratic party abandoning Taiwan would certainly be ironic: It’s arguably the most liberal country in East Asia—it will likely soon become the only country in the region with gay marriage, for example. And it would also be a moral outrage.
Raise a glass of Taiwan’s award-winning Kavalan tonight in solidarity with an ally that deserves American support.
