HARD FIGHTING IN MOSUL: The fight to liberate western Mosul, which began a few days ago, is turning out to be as tough as advertised. The liberation of the part of the city east of the Tigris river took a heavy toll on some of Iraq’s best troops, its elite counterterrorism forces. The densely populated western part of the city with its narrows streets poses a particular challenge when the goal is to kill the enemy, but not the civilians trapped by the fighting.
One reason the assault is taking so long is that in previous operations, liberating Ramadi and Fallujah, ISIS fighters could cut and run to fight again another day. But with Mosul being their last stand in Iraq, they have dug in to fight to the finish.
“In Mosul, ISIS command and control is still in place, and the main body of ISIS fighters is defending in place. That, in of itself, has made the battle significantly harder,” said former Army Vice Chief Jack Keane, in this morning’s Cipher Brief. “Specifically, ISIS has also used human shields to their advantage in order to disarm the American airpower advantage, and they’ve done that very successfully.”
Keane said the offensive has to be “paused” in order to bring in reinforcements for Iraq’s specially-trained Counterterrorism Service troops, after the brutal battle for the eastern part of the city. “Some estimate these casualties rose as high as 50 percent,” Keane said. “These were the primary assault forces so reinforcements were then brought up to thicken their ranks. Those casualties were the primary reason for the pause.”
We’ll hear more this morning when Pentagon reporters are briefing by the chief U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, Air Force Col. John Dorrian, live streamed at defense.gov.
THE NEW STRATEGY IS COMING: The Pentagon said it will meet next Tuesday’s deadline to submit a new, improved strategy for defeating ISIS around the world. President Trump signed an executive order Jan. 28 calling for “a comprehensive strategy and plans for the defeat of ISIS,” along with recommendations to change the rules of engagement to take the gloves off, and including options for “public diplomacy, information operations, and cyber strategies.”
“We are on track to deliver it on time,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, briefing reporters at the Pentagon yesterday. “This is going to be a comprehensive, whole-of-government plan that’s going to address not only the core ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but it’s going to address the other areas where ISIS has sprung up,” Davis said.
MORE US TROOPS? U.S. Central Commander Gen. Joseph Votel said the liberation of the Syrian city of Raqqa may require the U.S. “take on a larger burden.” Votel was speaking to reporters accompanying him on a trip to the Middle East. When asked by CBS if more U.S. troops will be sent into Syria, Votel responded, “perhaps,” and then explained that the local forces the U.S. is supporting in Syria “don’t have as good mobility, they don’t have as much firepower, so we have to be prepared to fill in some of those gaps for them and that may involve additional fire support capability, a variety of other things that we bring in to help offset some of the gaps that they have and we take the burden on ourselves for that aspect of the fight.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly are off to Mexico City today to meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto for discussions on border security, law enforcement cooperation and trade. The meeting will be a test of Tillerson’s diplomatic skills coming as it does after the Mexican president canceled a visit to the U.S. following Trump’s vow to make Mexico pay for construction of a wall along America’s southern border. Not to mention a follow-up phone call with Peña Nieto in which Trump reportedly offered to send U.S. troops into Mexico to stop “bad hombres down there.” In addition to meeting with president, Tillerson and Kelly also have meetings set with the Mexican ministers of Interior, Foreign Relations, Finance, National Defense, and Navy, according to the State Department.
MORE EUROPEAN REASSURANCE: The Apaches have arrived. The American attack helicopters were delivered to Ramstein Air Base, Germany, today as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is intended as a show of force to reassure America’s European allies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The deployment of a U.S. combat aviation brigade, which also includes Black Hawk helicopters, “ensures we have additional combat firepower and support if needed at the time and place of our choosing,” said Army Col. Todd Bertulis, U.S. European Command deputy director of logistics. The Apaches are based out of Fort Bliss, Texas, and the Black Hawks are based at Fort Drum, N.Y. They are being deployed to Europe on a nine-month rotation.
$1 BILLION SAVED! REALLY? Experts are divided over how much credence to give Trump’s claim that he saved more than $1 billion on the Air Force One program. While Todd Harrison of Center for Strategic and International Studies tells us the savings likely came from scaled back requirements or testing, the Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia was more skeptical. “That was a fabrication,” Aboulafia said of the $4 billion price tag that Trump criticized. “Then when he was told, it’s a $2.7-2.9 billion program, he said I just saved a billion dollars.I’m embarrassed there are people who believe this.”
SEMPER BRRATUS: Rep. Duncan Hunter sent a letter to the president on Tuesday saying that he shouldn’t forget about the Coast Guard’s readiness shortfalls in the Arctic when he works up a budget to rebuild the military. One of the top priorities? Buying the service a new icebreaker and working toward a total icebreaking fleet of at least six.
FALSE HARWOOD NARRATIVE: White House press secretary Sean Spicer vigorously disputes widespread reports that retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward turned down the national security adviser job because of reservations over whether he would have a free hand to clean house. Spicer yesterday labeled those reports “100 percent false.” Several media outlets quoted sources supposedly close to Harward as saying the former Navy SEAL was put off by the “chaos” in the White House and concerns about his authority to bring in his own staff.
But Spicer insists Harward ultimately decided against joining the administration solely because of “financial and family” considerations. “Admiral Harward made it very, very clear that he wanted this job,” Spicer said, adding Harward expressed interest in coming on board at a later date. “He said, ‘If there’s another opening in a year or two, I would be honored. I am so impressed with the team that’s there.’ ” Spicer said. “I would urge people to actually talk to him.”
As if to underscore the point, Spicer said Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who did take the job, will have “100 percent” autonomy over hiring and firing. “He will have whatever he needs to implement a successful team,” Spicer said. Asked if that would include the authority to boot chief strategist Stephen Bannon from the National Security Council, Spicer said, “Obviously with something like that, he would come to the president and make that recommendation. But the president would take that under serious consideration.”
MULLEN SAYS BAN BANNON: Former Joint Chiefs Chairman retired Adm. Mike Mullen told NPR this morning that the first thing he would advise McMaster to do is to go to the president, and convince him that Bannon should provide his political advice outside the structure of the NSC. Mullin wrote an opinion piece in the New York Times Feb 6 arguing that Bannon had no business being on what has always been a non-political body. “It’s nothing to do with Mr. Bannon personally at this point,” Mullen said in an interview that aired this morning. “There aren’t many non-politicized entities left in Washington. Given the gravity of the issues the National Security Council deals with, it is vital that that body not be politicized, and Bannon’s presence as a member of that body politicizes it instantly.”
FATE OF McMASTER’S STARS: While the national security adviser position does not require Senate confirmation, it turns out McMaster will need approval from the Senate to keep his three stars. Experts say that because McMaster is remaining on active-duty, the Senate will need to reconfirm him to his rank of lieutenant general, and designate his new job as a three-star billet. But he’s unlikely to face any pushback from the Senate and, even if he did, he could still serve in the role with a demotion to two-star.
IN HIS OWN WORDS: If you really want to get a feel for why McMaster has so many admirers, just listen to his ruminations on future warfare at a conference two years ago. You can watch a video of McMaster’s session with CNN’s Jake Tapper here.
ABOUT THAT REPORTER WHO ASKS ALL THE SMART QUESTIONS: There’s one reporter covering the Pentagon who always seems to know just what to ask about operational matters. It’s because he’s been there. His Washington Post colleague writes about him this morning, and fills in a little of his resume. “Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a fourth-generation military man, deployed twice to Afghanistan. The second time, as a 22-year-old Marine corporal in 2010, he led an eight-man infantry team into combat. Two of his men were wounded by enemy sniper fire, and one of his best buddies later died in combat.” In his opinion piece, the Post’s Dana Milbank is complaining about Trump’s tweet calling the “fake news media … the enemy of the American People!”
MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE: U.S. Pacific Command leader Adm. Harry Harris quoted autobot leader Optimus Prime in a speech yesterday calling on the military to “innovate or die” and ensure U.S. military technology can keep pace with the rest of the world. “Fate rarely calls upon us at a moment of our choosing…That’s pretty cool words. That’s a line from Transformers 3,” Harris said at the U.S. Naval Institute’s WEST 2017 event.
THE RUNDOWN
Defense One: 3 Urgent Tasks for Trump’s National-Security Team
Washington Post: The tank battle that came to define the early career of Trump’s new national security adviser
Reuters: Trump’s new security advisor differs from him on Russia, other key issues
Military Times: Here’s what the White House got wrong about Brent Scowcroft
War is Boring: It’s Not Just ‘Strangelove’: Today’s Bombers Rely on America’s Weakest Nuclear Links
Navy Times: San Diego carrier begins closely watched patrol of the South China Sea
Defense News: China displays trimaran frigate design
Reuters: China Finishing South China Sea Buildings That Could House Missiles – U.S. Officials
The Guardian: Australia Should Not Join U.S. In South China Sea Operations, Says Retired Defence Chief
BBC: Kim Jong-nam killing: Senior N Korea diplomat named as suspect
Reuters: Exclusive: CIA-backed aid for Syrian rebels frozen after Islamist attack – sources
Daily Caller: Mattis Issues Memos To Cut Down On Waste At The Pentagon
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 22
11 a.m. Air Force Col. John Dorrian, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve briefs pentagon reporters live from Baghdad on the West Mosul offensive, and operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23
8 a.m. 1800 Jefferson Davis Highway, Arlington, Va. Allison Stiller, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition, speaks at a Navy League breakfast event. navyleague.org
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at a military strategy forum. csis.org
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Joseph Dunford talks about global threats and U.S. national security priorities. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Al Mauroni, director of the U.S. Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base, talks about countering weapons of mass destruction. heritage.org
12 p.m. Rayburn 2168. Cato Institute experts talk about whether it’s time to conduct another round of base realignment and closures. cato.org
2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A panel discusses efforts to develop a global standard for drones. stimson.org
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 28
10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Two think tank experts testify on the state of Iraq once the battle to retake Mosul is over. foreign.senate.gov
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 1
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Pentagon officials talk about the future of vertical lift platforms. csis.org
