Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., was touting his record opposing the Iraq War on Sunday when CNN’s Dana Bash asked him, “What does it say about Joe Biden’s judgment that he didn’t [oppose the war]?” Sanders responded, “Well, I will let the voters decide that.”
When Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., was asked about whether Biden’s embarrassing reversal on the Hyde Amendment showed he was out of step, she responded, “I’ll leave that to pundits.”
These sorts of responses are what you’d expect at this early stage in the primaries, when candidates tend to try to act above the fray and avoid pointed attacks on their rivals. Usually they wait much closer to the actual nominating contests to sharpen their attacks.
But in the absurdly crowded field that is the 2020 Democratic nomination battle, Biden’s rivals don’t have the luxury of of waiting.
In 2016, many Republicans in the crowded field held off on attacking Donald Trump until he had already solidified his grip on the electorate, and by then it was too late. In Trump’s case, Republicans had some excuses. Along with everybody else in politics, they assumed that Trump would self-implode without their need to get their hands dirty or alienate his voters. Furthermore, Republicans were worried that if Trump didn’t get the nomination, he’d run as a third party candidate, so they were handling him delicately to avoid that possibility. Thus, they figured they’d attack other candidates so that they could be in the leading position once Trump collapsed. This was likely a big mistake. Though it’s possible that none of it would have made a difference, a more sustained campaign that started earlier certainly would have made Trump’s path to the nomination much more difficult and given a fighting chance to at least one other candidate.
When it comes to 2020 Democrats, these factors do not apply. The prospect that Biden will be the nominee is much more plausible than the idea of a Trump nomination seemed four years ago. There is also no risk that he’d end up as a third party candidate. So there aren’t the same reasons to hold fire.
The way the Democratic field is divided right now, essentially Biden is in a tier by himself. After that, there is a second tier, which Sanders leads, trailed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Harris, and Sound Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Most everybody else is in the third tier, though Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Cory Booker,D-N.J., are on the bubble, ahead of the rest.
The debates on June 26 and 27 will be the first big chance to go after Biden, and for many of them, the only chance as the criteria for qualifying for the September round of debates is more difficult. So for anybody in that third tier, they need to maximize the few minutes they’ll realistically have to speak on stage with the other candidates.
Now, there is an argument that the candidates in the second tier have more time to wait, as long as they are in that pack, they can make their move later in the race. But there are reasons they’d want to strike earlier.
One is that any attacks coming from the candidates in the low single digits are going to be seen as desperate and taken less seriously. We saw this in 2016 when lower-polling candidates like Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal tried to go after Trump. When they tried and failed, it ended up cementing the sense that Trump was the alpha in the race, and discouraged other candidates from taking a risk.
The other reason is that Biden’s central strategy is to focus his attacks on Trump, which in turn will inevitably provoke a response from the president. Attacking Trump reminds Democratic voters of what Biden has in common with them, and distracts attention from past stances that may not be popular in the modern party. It also elevates Biden by making it seem as though we’re watching the inevitable general election play out. “Trump, Biden Face Off in Iowa in Potential 2020 Election Preview,” read one of many such headlines as they traded barbs in the first caucus state.
As long as other Democrats are holding their fire on Biden, this will get repeated over and over again. However, if Democrats actually start attacking Biden, they’ll force him to explain past positions, and reinforce the idea that he’s still in a competitive primary. This will throw him off his game of focusing on Trump.
Any candidate who starts going hard after Biden could also look like a bold leader who isn’t waiting for somebody else to move first. Somebody should seize the opportunity.
