Democratic freshman lawmakers are posting huge fundraising numbers even though it is the beginning of the 2020 cycle, signaling trouble for Republicans hoping to reclaim the House.
Democratic presidential candidates are posting some impressive first-quarter fundraising hauls. But it’s the stellar numbers from relatively obscure, freshman House Democrats that have caught the attention of Republican operatives. Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., raised $800,000 from Jan. 1 to March 31; Rep. Antonio Delgado, D-N.Y., raised $750,000; and Rep. Joe Cunningham, D-S.C., raised $650,000, to name a few.
Fatigue typically sets in after an election as donors retrench and the grassroots bask in victory. To the extent robust, post-midterm election activity continues, presidential candidates usually benefit. But House Democrats — even those not named Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. — are maintaining their 2018 momentum.
“The Democrats’ liberal base is still motivated by their white-hot hatred of President Trump,” said Michael Steel, a Republican operative.
Democrats collectively raised more than $1 billion in 2017 and 2018 on their way to flipping 40 House seats and winning control of the chamber after eight years in the minority. The party lost a net of two Senate seats but successfully defended a handful of targeted seats while capturing two from the GOP in the key battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada. In doing so, Democrats vastly outraised the Republicans.
Some Republicans assumed that the progressive energy fueling the Democratic Party’s green wave of fundraising and activism in 2018 would cool down post-election. According to this line of this line of thinking, seizing the House, and exercising the power it afforded, would satisfy some of the hunger to combat Trump.
But some Republicans are warning colleagues to ignore this conventional wisdom after seeing the initial wave of first quarter fundraising figures from House Democrats who were elected just last November and are far from household names. “Democrats are serious about defeating the president and they want a House that will be helpful,” said a veteran Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to avoid publicly criticizing the party.
“In 2018, Democrats were just getting started,” this operative added.
Candidates are not required to file their first quarter fundraising reports until April 15. Those who want to make a splash with a big number often publicize theirs ahead of time, as have more than half a dozen freshman House Democrats. Rep. Harley Rouda of California raised $500,000, Rep. Andy Kim of New Jersey raised $550,000, Rep. Katie Hill of California raised $560,000, Rep. Max Rose of New York raised $600,000, and Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan raised $565,000.
Mark Kelly, the Democrat running for Senate in Arizona, raised $4 million.
Democrats aren’t without challenges.
In the House, there is a brewing civil war between liberal activists, who want the freedom to primary incumbents who stray from party orthodoxy, and the Democratic leadership, which is threatening to blacklist operatives who work for insurgent candidates. Meanwhile, in the presidential primary, some of the leading candidates are embracing policies that could have limited appeal in the general election.
In the interim, Democratic insiders are buoyed by what they’re seeing — a party just as energized, if not more so, than in 2018.
With Trump on the ballot in 2020, Republicans are not going to have an enthusiasm or turnout problem. Still, some Republicans are cautioning that the Democratic takeover of the House was not a fluke. Even with Trump in position to win re-election, reclaiming the chamber could be a longer-term project as the GOP figures out how to mitigate a critical fundraising deficit.
“Last cycle, the biggest tactical disadvantage that we faced as a party was money,” said Corry Bliss, a Republican consultant who in 2018 was head of Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC. “We as a party have to figure out a way to not have our candidates outspent.”
[Also read: The Democrats’ fundraising has crushed the GOP, but not because of ActBlue]
