Some pollsters and political analysts maintain Maryland’s ballot vote on slots may be too close to call, fewer than 24 hours before the election.
Almost 48 percent of 884 voters surveyed late last week said they oppose bringing 15,000 slot machines to five racetracks around the state, compared with 45 percent who favor doing so, according to a Zogby Internet poll paid for by slots opponents. The poll was within the margin of error, however, and is the first to show slots headed for defeat.
Polls by The Washington Post and slots proponents, however, have all shown the referendum headed for an easy jackpot on Election Day, with slots support hovering around 60 percent.
“The numbers have been good all along and nothing has occurred that would make us think otherwise,” said Steve Kearney, spokesman for the slots advocacy group For Maryland, For Our Future.
Older data from Gonzales Research, released in early September, showed a tighter campaign: 49 percent supporting slots, 43 percent against and 8 percent undecided.
Patrick Gonzales, president of Gonzales Research, said he thinks the final tally will be closer than most expect, despite slots opponents “being outspent pretty good.”
“At the grassroots level, the opposition to slots has been really well-organized,” Gonzales said.
University of Maryland’s professor Ron Walters, an expert in Maryland and African-American politics, said the black community is torn. Some of the state’s top black elected leaders, such as Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett and Baltimore City Mayor Sheila Dixon, are promoting slots to prevent deep cuts to social programs and education. But many black clergy members are railing against legalized gambling from the pulpit.
“There is no unanimity in the black community on this issue,” Walters said. “If I had to guess, I would say people would listen more to their ministers. Most people have a more personal relationship there and closer proximity to them than elected leaders, and there is a huge trust factor in the middle of this discussion.”
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. in Maryland today.
Montgomery County elections officials said they get slightly over 80 percent voter turnout in an average year, and were expecting about 85 percent turnout Tuesday.
By Monday morning, they’d received 41,072 absentee ballots, ahead of the 35,156 total absentee ballots they counted in 2004.
