As the Foley firestorm was spreading across Capitol Hill this weekend, a new Mason-Dixon poll made clear that voters were already souring on incumbents tainted by scandal.
By far, the greatest impact has been from the Jack Abramoff case, which became feedstock for anti-incumbent ads and rhetoric when the former lobbyist pleaded guilty in January to fraud and conspiracy to bribe public officials.
Most affected by all accounts has been Montana Republican Conrad Burns, who is campaigning hard to hold onto his Senate seat. But lucrative donations given by Abramoff to Burns have been a major factor in his waning popularity. Burns now trails his opponent, Jon Tester, by seven points according to the poll results released during the weekend. On what issue does Burns fare the worst? Ethics.
Tester’s surprise landslide win in the Democratic primary may have foreshadowed the roll ethics would play in the current race. Tester’s opponent, state auditor John Morrison, was damaged when questions arose over his handling of a securities case involving the fiance of a woman with whom he was having an affair. The matter appears to have focused voters on Tester as the one who could best claim the high ground over Burns.
The Abramoff case is also undermining Republicans in Ohio’s 18th district. Though Rep. Bob Ney admitted last month to trading favors with Abramoff for trips and gifts, his formal guilty plea will not be entered until next week. It also appears he will simply let his House term expire rather than resign as Republicans would like.
Ney’s successor on the ballot, State Sen. Joyce Padgett, is now being accused, said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, of also being too close to Ney. She is also seen by some as too close to Gov. Bob Taft — who pleaded guilty last year to not reporting meals and golf outings.
Meanwhile, on the West Coast, Republican Reps. John Doolittle, of California’s 4th district, and Richard Pombo, of the 11th, are both facing ads charging them with helping Abramoff. Doolittle is being charged by his Democratic opponent Charles Brown of looking the other way on abuses in the Northern Mariana Islands — whose government was an Abramoff client. A late-August Benenson Strategy Group poll reported by the Oroville Mercury Register shows the race had closed to a statistical tie.
Meanwhile, Pombo — who, as head of the committee dealing with tribal issues, received more than $50,000 in contributions from Abramoff and his Indian tribe clients — is facing one of the toughest races in the nation. Though poll results were not readily available, the amount of money being poured into the race by the Republican party is seen as a sign he is in trouble.
Even so, experts still predict Doolittle, Pombo and Republican Rep. Jerry Lewis — whose lobbyist connections are under investigation — could win their races. But those predictions, and the poll numbers cited above, were before Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., abruptly resigned in the face of revelations he sent sexually explicit messages to teenage boys he met while they were congressional pages. That was also before it became clear that the House leadership knew there were concerns about Foley and did nothing.
If the poll was taken again today, it’s a safe bet the scandal-free would fare even better.
