Fiorina’s rise means upgraded campaign

The former Hewlett Packard CEO is not an outsider in the strictest sense of the word. Fiorina advised Sen. John McCain’s, R-Ariz., 2008 presidential campaign, was the GOP nominee for Senate in California in 2010, and helped raise money for Senate Republicans in 2014. But the newly minted 2016 front-runner entered the presidential race an underdog with no natural constituency or state from which to build on and near zero big-money, establishment backing.

Having earned the attention of Republicans through winning performances in the two televised debates, Fiorina’s challenge is to close the deal, and build a political organization that can turn interest into votes.

“Carly is a great communicator, and Carly’s conviction, I think, shows,” said Deborah Bowker, Fiorina’s longtime friend and senior campaign advisor. “But that is not enough.”

Fiorina has been campaigning to rave reviews from grassroots conservatives since early this year. They were impressed with her comprehension of the issues and taken by articulate, charismatic speaking style. Fiorina’s biting criticism of Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton — perhaps delivered only as a female politician could — also drew praise. But she remained stuck in the polls until August, when a commanding performance in the Fox News undercard debate made her a legitimate contender.

Coming out of the CNN debate Wednesday evening, Fiorina is focused on transforming her lean, start-up campaign into a front-running operation. Doing so is imperative. In hard fought, early-state presidential caucuses and primaries, leading in the polls isn’t enough. Winning candidates oversee effective voter turnout operations. That means being organized on the ground, connected to key grassroots activists and raising the money to pay for it all.

On Friday, campaign spokeswoman Sarah Isgur Flores declined to discuss how Fiorina’s team is adjusting to front-runner status and moving to capitalize on her rise in the polls. It’s still relatively early in the nomination battle, and Fiorina wouldn’t be the first outsider candidate who sparked voters’ interests but failed to show durability. She polled seventh among GOP primary voters nationally, with 3.3 percent, in the RealClearPolitics.com average, and second in the Washington Examiner‘s power rankings.

“Carly is proving that she’s immensely talented, but her great challenge is to use this momentum she’s generated on stage to recruit and build an organization that can compete on the ground,” said Josh Holmes, a Republican consultant who guided Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s 2014 re-election bid. “That’s a huge unanswered question that we’ll see how it plays out over the next few months.”

A view of Fiorina’s support in two early states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, offers an example of progress and promise.

In the Granite State, where her poll numbers are solid, she is backed by several prominent female Republicans, including Kerry Marsh, Barbara Biggie and Yvonne Dean-Bailey, a 19-year-old who won a contested state House seat this year. This support shouldn’t be dismissed in a state that has recently elected several women to high office. In South Carolina, however, she has yet to develop broader support despite backing from some GOP women’s groups and female legislators.

“Carly has some support among the Republican women groups in the state and a few Republican women legislators. This is somewhat reminiscent of the “draft Condi Rice” movement in previous cycles,” a Palmetto State GOP insider said. “She has, in general, solid levels of likability among activists. But that hasn’t yet translated into broader support.”

Fiorina’s entrance into the presidential race was greeted with curiosity and a bit of sneering. She has never held political office and her direct campaign experience consisted of one victory in the 2010 GOP Senate primary in California, followed by a 10 point loss to Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Fiorina earned mixed reviews for her showing.

Fans credit her with winning a competitive Republican primary in unwieldy California, and note that they put a longtime Democratic incumbent on the defensive in a blue state. Critics say she might have done better against Boxer in a GOP wave election, and note that she allowed her Senate campaign debt to fester for four years before finally paying it off as her 2016 effort was getting underway.

Jon Fleischman, a conservative activist in Orange County, Calif., who publishes the Flash Report, said Fiorina ran a strong race that year that impressed most who paid attention. Her big handicap, Fleischman said, was running in ultra-liberal California, which hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1988. He recalls a sweeping speech Fiorina delivered, without referring to any notes, to a gathering of the state GOP that lasted for roughly 30 minutes; and so he’s not at all surprised at how she’s comported herself in the presidential contest, nor is he shocked by her success.

Fleischman also remembers something else about Fiorina’s Senate run that struck him: “She did not run to the center in the general election. She staked out her positions as a conservative” and stuck with them.

Bowker, Fiorina’s close friend of more than 25 years, said she was surprised when Fiorina decided to pursue politics after she was fired from her job as HP’s CEO and decided to chart a new career path.

Bowker is a public relations executive who spent many years working for Burson Marsteller in Washington and first met Fiorina when both were studying for a masters degree at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. It was in that capacity that Bowker was hired by Fiorina, despite warnings from both of their husbands that working together would jeopardize their friendship. Together, the two developed Fiorina’s post-business image and purpose.

In a telephone interview from her home in Silicon Valley, Bowker figured that Fiorina would end up forming a global nonprofit and satisfy her need to be involved in “things that matter” that way. She did not think Fiorina would run for office again after her failed Senate bid. But Bowker said that Fiorina explained to her that she sort of fell in love with politics during the McCain campaign.

“Carly gravitates to big enterprises, big issues and big problems,” Bowker said. “She’s tried and tested and believes that she has the capability and capacity for big issues.”

Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.