The military is approaching a situation where the U.S. will not be able to operate in sustained combat while also deterring threats around the world, according to a Heritage Foundation report released Wednesday.
The annual Index of Military Strength found that the country is facing more dangerous threats while being forced to shrink and postpone modernization under budget caps. Because of a smaller force and a high operational tempo, assets and people are getting worn out and tired, said Dakota Wood, senior research fellow for defense at the Heritage Foundation and editor of the annual military report card.
The Army and Air Force have both gotten worse over the past year, the report found. The Air Force, now rated as marginal compared to strong in the 2015 report, may be acquiring new aircraft, but the service’s usable planes are nearing the end of their service life.
The Army’s soldiers and platforms are “wearing out” from a sustained high operational tempo and are not afforded time to recover from that. The Army, which was rated as marginal in the 2015 report, is now rated as weak.
“It’s the first time we’ve seen an individual service in that state of affairs,” Wood said.
While the Navy and Marine Corps were not officially downgraded in the report, Wood said all services are struggling, with the Navy putting off maintenance on ships because they are needed to operate and Marines getting run down from operating under a high deployment-to-dwell ratio for years.
“With a few units and a large demand signal, it’s the same kind of problem Army and Navy are seeing — fewer units trying to do more things and you just can’t sustain that forever,” Wood said.
Wood acknowledged that the report could not look at everything that contributes to national defense, instead choosing to look at “hard power,” in terms of forces and platforms that could be deployed to battle.
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, commended the report, but said it misses out on measuring a key element of America’s foreign policy: credibility.
“On foreign policy, it’s really the coin of the realm on how credible we are as a country when we take actions,” Sullivan said. “I believe it’s waning, it’s waning in much of the world.”
Sullivan spoke specifically about the U.S. not following through on public declarations, like President Obama drawing a “red line” in Syria. He also said the administration has repeatedly dismissed advances by adversaries, such as saying that Russia taking on a greater role in the Middle East is a sign of its weakness.
But the senator said it’s the opposite, and that Russia is stepping up in both the Middle East and the Arctic where America is stepping back.
But the Heritage report doesn’t name Russia or terrorism in the Middle East or even China as the biggest threat to the U.S. Instead, it says North Korea poses the greatest threat to American national security because of its nuclear capabilities, erratic nature and public willingness to strike the U.S.
“They have made explicit their intent many times that they are willing to strike America,” said Walter Lohman, director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation. “Given the level of capability they have, I think you have to take that very seriously.”
The Heritage report says the military must build up to a force that can handle a major conflict while still providing deterrent capabilities to reassure allies. The recommended size for the military is 50 Army brigade combat teams, 346 Navy ships and 624 Navy strike aircraft, 1,200 Air Force fighter aircraft and 36 Marine Corps battalions.
These numbers mirror the recommended size of the military in last year’s report, which 2016 presidential candidate Carly Fiorina cited during the last Republican presidential debate when talking about building up the nation’s defense.
