Sen. Kamala Harris soared after her strong performance following the first Democratic presidential debate, but recent polling suggests that her boomlet has run its course.
To be sure, Harris is still polling better than she was before pummeling Joe Biden in the first debate, but she’s retreated from the highs she was experiencing in the immediate aftermath of that mauling. Specifically, after the debate, Harris jumped from around 7% in the RealClearPolitics average to 15%. But she subsequently sank to about 12%. A few weeks ago, it seemed as though she was surging into the second place position, now she’s basically in a traffic jam with the other candidates chasing Biden — Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. It’s not a terrible place to be at this early stage in the race, but it does suggest some resistance.
Following her debate performance, Harris continued her tradition of backing off or adjusting the positions she took, most notably, on healthcare and busing, though her recent decline may have more to do with her simply getting less media attention after the initial post-debate swarm.
The pattern is similar to what happened after her launch, in which she had a strong rollout and nearly doubled her support, only to see her polling steadily decline as the campaign returned to the day-to-day. In contrast, Warren’s growth has been much slower and steadier.
Next week, Harris will have another opportunity to take on Biden and eight other rivals on the debate stage. It’s possible if she strings together a pattern of dominant debate performances it will bolster her overall electability argument, leading to a more sustained surge months from now, when it really matters.
