President Trump doesn’t want to punish Turkey further for purchasing advanced anti-aircraft weaponry from Russia, putting him on a collision course with Republican lawmakers intent on rebuking the wayward NATO ally.
“Turkey’s relationship with Russia, particularly their acceptance of the S-400 missile system, creates national security risks for the United States and our NATO allies,” Florida Republican Rick Scott, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “I have serious concerns about allowing Turkey to continue to enjoy the protections of NATO while cozying up to Moscow.”
That statement could be a rebuff of the president’s latest idea to defuse a controversy that threatens to blow a hole in the transatlantic alliance. Trump has expelled Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter jet program, depriving Ankara of the world’s most advanced warplane, but would rather offer Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan carrots than additional sticks to mothball the $3.5 billion weapons system Russia delivered over the last two weeks.
“The president is eager to essentially cut a deal with Turkey in terms of offering a free-trade agreement or other economic incentives for Turkey to move away from the S-400 system,” Tyler Stapleton, deputy director of congressional relations at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank with close ties to the administration, told the Washington Examiner. “Trump believes that his relationship with Erdogan is going to win the day, in terms of being able to resolve issues without any kind of major sanctions being imposed on Turkey.”
There’s a strong appetite on Capitol Hill for additional punitive measures, however, in keeping with a federal law designed to drive clients away from Russia’s defense industry. Administration officials argue that legislation, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, was designed to punish Russian aggression, not as a tool to keep allies in line.
“We’ve made clear to the Turks that the activation of the S-400 is unacceptable,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Thursday. “There could be more sanctions to follow, but frankly what we’d really like is the S-400 not to become operational. That’s our objective. It’s what we’ve been talking to the Turks about for months and months.”
Those comments dovetail with a proposal that Sen. Lindsey Graham outlined in a phone call with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu that he placed at the president’s request, after Trump hosted Republican senators for a discussion of the issue last week.
“My pitch to Turkey was: Let’s stand down on the S-400, let’s start free-trade agreement negotiations,” Graham told Defense One. “I think there’s space to do a free trade agreement if we don’t activate the system. If the system gets activated, there are no options left, the [sanctions] law is clear.”
Trump’s team could try to argue that mere possession of the weapons system does not qualify as a “significant transaction,” according to Stapleton, because the law doesn’t specifically define that term. A similar debate about the threshold for sanctions unfolded last year after China purchased the same anti-aircraft defenses, but the administration imposed sanctions after the missiles were delivered.
“There would certainly be frustration in the Senate if they’re trying to find legal loopholes to not do what most of us agree … needs to be done,” a Senate Republican aide familiar with the debate told the Washington Examiner.
Graham’s role as intermediary between Trump and Turkey is consistent with what looks like a long-running effort to maintain a close relationship with the president so as to shape Trump’s decision-making when they disagree. But Erdoğan has hemorrhaged goodwill in Congress with his blatant authoritarianism — the Turkish leader watched while his security team beat protesters in Washington in 2017 — and a series of foreign policy disputes.
That makes it difficult for Trump to go easy on Turkey now. “Turkey has burned so many bridges at this point with Congress that it set up an adversarial relationship,” said Stapleton, whose perch at FDD puts him in close contact with lawmakers. “And so I don’t believe that the Trump administration would be able to hand-wave with light interaction on sanctions and appease Congress.”
The disagreement was made obvious during Trump’s Tuesday huddle with Senate Republicans. The president clashed with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch, but only after avoiding the subject for nearly an hour, even though the White House had billed the meeting explicitly as a discussion of the Turkey sanctions.
“It was bizarre,” said the GOP aide, whose boss described Trump’s evasiveness after the meeting. “Basically, what the president said is he doesn’t want to do sanctions. And he knows he can’t, but he wishes he could keep selling them the F-35.”
Trump has overcome congressional frustration with his foreign policy in the past. Just last week, he vetoed three bills that would have blocked arms sales to Saudi Arabia, confident he has enough GOP support to win if Congress attempts to override the veto.
He might have a harder time when it comes to Turkey. “It feels like they’re more united on Turkey than they are on Saudi Arabia,” the aide said of congressional Republicans.
Indiana Sen. Todd Young, one of the leading Republican critics of the administration’s Saudi Arabia policy, has partnered with Scott to introduce a resolution affirming that Turkey’s receipt of S-400s violates the sanctions law. The resolution also calls for NATO member states to review “the continued inclusion” of Turkey in the alliance.
“I think that this is going to be a recurring item where Congress, both the Senate and the House side, are going to continue down this path of being a little adversarial with the White House on this point,” Stapleton said. “The Trump administration is going to have to respond at some point. I don’t think they can ignore Congress on this point for very long.”
