In an interview broadcast on CBS’s The Early Show Monday morning, President Obama was asked about his administration’s response to the protests in Iran. “The last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States,” Obama said. Obama added, “We shouldn’t be playing into that.” Of course, the regime is going to blame the U.S., UK and the West anyway. The regime’s standard playbook calls for trying “to make this an argument about the United States.” The regime has already called that play. From MEMRI, here is how Ayatollah Khamenei’s representative in Syria explained the protests:
And then Iranian spokesman Hassan Qashqavi, who sounds an awful lot like Baghdad Bob, branded the protests “instances of media, security and political warfare.” From Washington TV:
That’s right, what is going on inside Iran right now is comparable to the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, except there were no meddlesome outside powers pulling the strings on American protesters. If you believe that then you probably believe the 12th Imam will reappear any minute now too. Look, this is the same tired old game the Iranian hardliners have played for thirty years. When something goes wrong for the regime, they blame America. Ayatollah Khomeini was a master of this game. But there is a profound difference between 1979-1980 and 2009. During Khomeini’s time, the ayatollah could count on his anti-American rhetoric resonating with the Iranian people. That is far less true today. Anti-Americanism surely still maintains some currency inside Iran, but not nearly as much as it did during Khomeini’s day. Polling of Iranian public opinion, which is admittedly limited, suggests that a strong majority of the Iranian people want improved relations with America. And the protesters themselves seek America’s and the world’s support. (See here, here, here, and here.) Thus, Khomeini’s justification for crushing dissent in 1979-1980, and afterwards, does not have the same effect today. This does not mean that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will not try to justify their violent crackdown in a similar fashion. They already have, and they will continue to do so. Pro-regime “students” have even already forced employees at the UK embassy in Tehran, as well as their families, to flee under the threat of violence. But the younger generations of Iranians who are driving this attempt at revolution did not participate in the 1979 uprising. Their attitudes towards America are significantly different from their predecessors, so the conspiratorial anti-American play will likely not resonate today as it did three decades ago, or even more recently. It also seems implausible on its face that the regime would be able to convince large numbers of Iranians that the protesters are American stooges. The protesters have earned their own street credit by marching en masse for their own reasons and on their own initiative. Mousavi is far from being an American puppet, which is, ironically, why some fret over throwing their support behind him. Most importantly, the protesters are already suffering their own casualties in support of their own cause. And Iranians surely know the martyrs in the making today are standing for Iranian-style freedom – not American plotting. It is reasonable to assume that they would take offense to be branding puppets of outside powers. None of this is to suggest that American rhetoric alone will make them indestructible. Nor is this intended to suggest that rhetoric alone will suffice. Michael Rubin is quite right that more is needed. And President Obama’s statements on the regime’s behavior, and the Iranian people, have gotten better as the situation on the ground has played out. But he shouldn’t assume that increasing America’s rhetorical support for the protesters will make the regime’s efforts to brand them American puppets successful. Right now, the protesters don’t seem to care at all what the regime has to say. And their supporters, who may not have the courage to take to the streets, are not going to be swayed by the regime’s propaganda.
