When Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack announced his retirement last year, both Republicans and Democrats in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District leaped into what has become a tight race for the open seat.
The seat, which represents one of 30 Democratic-controlled districts that President Trump won in 2016, has been blue since Loebsack flipped it in a narrow 2006 upset. Loebsack held the seat comfortably through much of his 14 years in office. Former President Barack Obama won the district by 13 points in 2012.
Trump, however, raised the possibility of a Republican resurgence when he beat 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 4 points in 2016.
Upon announcing his retirement, Loebsack gave his blessing to Rita Hart, who served as a state senator until 2019, to hold the seat in a race that Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up with a slight Democratic lean.
Facing Hart is a familiar competitor to Iowa Democrats, state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who challenged Loebsack for the seat in 2008, 2010, and 2014. Miller-Meeks, an ophthalmologist who served as an Army physician, defeated former Illinois Rep. Bobby Schilling in an acrimonious primary battle this summer.
Hart has raised twice as much as Miller-Meeks, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Hart also leads Miller-Meeks by 4 points, a recent poll commissioned by the Des Moines Register found. That lead, which is within the margin of error, is down from the double-digit advantage Hart had over Miller-Meeks throughout the summer.
The district’s population is split into two major areas. In the east, it is clustered around the Iowa side of the postindustrial Quad Cities, Davenport and Bettendorf. In the west, a significant voter bloc clusters around the University of Iowa in Iowa City.
Like each of Iowa’s four congressional districts, the race in the 2nd District is too close to predict one way or the other, said J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll.
Hart and Miller-Meeks debated on Thursday after months of campaigning.
