Multiple national polls this week show President Trump, for the first time, starting to fall behind Democratic rival Joe Biden on the key issue of his reelection campaign: the economy.
Democrats point to it as an early sign of the tide turning against Trump with regard to the public’s perception of his handling of the virus and the economy, but Republicans say that there’s still time to change people’s opinions and that some polls are flat-out wrong.
“The president is presiding over an 11% unemployment rate and dismal headlines in terms of both the virus and its impact on the economy,” Jared Bernstein, one of Biden’s top economic advisers, told the Washington Examiner. “It would be weird if the polls didn’t show the kinds of results we’re starting to see.”
“I don’t think you have to do rocket science to figure this one out,” added Bernstein, although he cautioned against overinterpreting people’s opinions based on one or two polls.
Voters’ approval of how Trump is handling the economy has tanked in the past month, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University. Trump’s approval regarding the economy dropped to 44% in July from 52% in June, according to the poll, and voters now say 50% to 45% that Biden would do a better job handling the economy.
The numbers in the Quinnipiac poll are Trump’s worst net score on the economy and on jobs since August 2017. Polls this week from CNBC and the Democratic firm Navigator Research found similar disapproval numbers, but a poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal painted a different portrait, showing a 54% approval for Trump’s handling of the economy.
Stephen Moore, a member of Trump’s economic recovery task force, told the Washington Examiner that the current polling doesn’t matter and that what’s important is how the economy looks in November ahead of the election, giving Trump plenty of time.
He admitted, however, that the recent polling showed people’s genuine frustrations regarding the virus.
“I think the polls reflect Trump’s handling of the virus, not his handling of the economy. People are really feeling weary about the virus right now,” said Moore, who also serves as an economist at the conservative advocacy organization FreedomWorks and is a columnist for the Washington Examiner.
Moore added that if Trump can “turn around” the situation regarding the coronavirus pandemic, then the economy will “turn around” as well, which he has optimism that Trump can do.
For much of his presidency, Trump has repeatedly had higher approval ratings on economic issues than on his overall performance and has made his argument for economic growth a cornerstone of his appeal to voters. The coronavirus-induced economic recession, with millions unemployed and businesses nationwide struggling, has thrown a wrench into this argument.
Trump’s own campaign doesn’t see the virus or the alleged economic struggles as a significant roadblock to his reelection.
“The evidence is already rolling in that the economy is roaring back,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told the Washington Examiner, “Joe Biden needs for the economy to not recover. Good news for Americans is bad news for Joe Biden.”
“What a pathetic place to be in,” Murtaugh added, “Joe Biden has to actually root against the success of Americans.”
Murtaugh also vehemently took issue with the Quinnipiac University poll in particular, which he said was slanted against Trump and intended to distort the truth because he said it polled far more Democrats than Republicans.
“It’s trash, and it should have been withheld from publication. It’s embarrassing to the profession of polling,” said Murtaugh, highlighting that 34% of those polled were Democrats whereas only 24% of them were Republicans.
“Its findings are meaningless, utterly meaningless, and not to be believed or taken seriously,” he said.
Democrats and their allies argue that the pandemic and the recession it created have gone on for so long that people have now gotten frustrated, claiming that many blame Trump for the ruptures in their lives.
“It’s one of the things that after enough time, people realize that you can’t really say that he’s doing a well enough job on the economy because these unemployments numbers are so high, and it’s because it’s been so long that they have been,” said Olugbenga Ajilore, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.
Ajilore said that with many schools potentially not reopening, people are realizing “this might be a new normal, and that freaks people out,” Ajilore said, adding as many economists have that the health of the economy is tied to the success of containing the virus.
Ultimately, Moore says, “It’s not a complicated election, Trump needs to have conquered the virus or made substantial progress so people are not afraid anymore and there needs to be an improving economy.”
