Voters don’t always change parties as they age. But when they do, studies have shown that they are far more likely to change from Democrats to Republicans than vice versa.
A new poll from Echelon Insights shows that while the basic storyline hasn’t changed, the Trump era has added a new twist. In an April survey of over 1,000 voters, Echelon found that while just 10% of current Democratic voters admit to ever having been a Republican, 27% of Republican voters said they used to be Democrats. Not surprisingly, the older a Republican voter, the more likely it is that he or she was at one time a Democrat.
A wrinkle comes in when independents are thrown into the mix. Far more current independents (45%) admit to once being a Republican than admit to once being a Democrat (37%). So why are all these now independent voters leaving the Republican Party?
A separate question in the Echelon survey may answer that. When asked, “Compared to how you felt when you first identified with the Republican Party, do you feel like you belong in that party more today or less today than you did then,” those who say they primarily support the Republican Party itself, as opposed to former President Donald Trump, are far more likely to say they feel less like they belong to the party today. For all the new voters whom Trump brought into the party, this is more evidence that he is driving some Republicans not to become Democrats, but at least to become independents instead.
The same survey also finds that Democrats are far less likely to have friends whom they know to be Republicans than vice versa. Almost a third of all Democrats say they have zero friends whom they know are Republicans. Three-fourths of Republican voters, however, say they have at least one friend who is a Democrat.
But those sheltered Democrats with no Republican friends shouldn’t worry. As they get older, at least some of their friends are bound to see the light and become Republicans. Or who knows — maybe they’ll be the ones to change parties themselves.
