HARRISBURG, PENNSYLVANIA — Facing fresh voter registration losses in the state and President Joe Biden’s plummeting ratings, Pennsylvania’s Democratic state party committee declined to put its full support behind any Senate candidate. The closed party primary contest takes place in May.
The decision came despite an aggressive push by Rep. Conor Lamb to earn the party’s endorsement this past weekend. Conor, who hails from suburban Mt. Lebanon, failed in two ballots to earn the coveted nod from committee members for the state’s open Senate seat.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta are also running, but neither tried harder behind closed doors to make the argument they were the party’s best candidate to beat a Republican in this fall’s Senate race for the seat left open by Sen. Pat Toomey’s retirement.
“[Lamb] had the most aggressive whip operation in the days leading up to the endorsement,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist from western Pennsylvania not involved in any of the Senate campaigns.
Pennsylvania Democrats require a candidate to win two-thirds of the votes on the state committee in order to earn the endorsement. Lamb failed twice to reach that threshold, but he did come in first in both ballots, followed by Fetterman and then Kenyatta.
Millersville University political scientist Terry Madonna observed that the split vote contained two lessons. “First,” he said, “the party establishment is rightfully hesitant to go against the will of the base of the party. And second, Democrats in general are heading in two different directions.”
The party base has become more progressive in recent primary elections — three incumbent Democratic mayors in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Allentown all lost to progressive challengers in last May’s primary contests. Yet, at the same time, the state itself in general elections has drifted center-right. “You cannot deny that in down-ballot races, voters in the state put more Republicans in office in both 2020 and 2021 in statewide offices, school boards, and municipal row offices,” said Madonna.
“It is clear that the Democratic establishment is still looking at electability for a candidate,” said Mikus. “The open question is: Will the voters agree in the spring?”
The Democrats’ long-standing lead over state Republicans in voter registration has slipped to around 632,000, a decrease from 813,885 a few years ago.
It is a dramatic shift in the state that is reflected nationally. A recent Gallup survey showed that over the course of 2021, when it asked voters how they identified politically, Democrats lost a 9-percentage-point advantage, and Republicans leaped ahead of them to a rare 5-point edge in the fourth quarter.
Madonna pointed out that the state party endorsement is a mixed bag. Katie McGinty, the party’s nominee in 2016, failed to get the state committee endorsement and won the primary. On the other hand, former Sen. Arlen Specter did get the state party’s endorsement in 2010 yet lost in the primary to former Rep. Joe Sestak.
Both Fetterman and Kenyatta embrace their progressive credentials. Lamb, for whom West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin held a fundraiser for last summer, often portrays himself as a centrist, although his voting record puts him shoulder to shoulder with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi nearly 90% of the time.
Mikus said that Lamb’s voting record might help him with the base in the spring. Madonna, however, cautions that this might not help him in a general election in the fall.
Republicans, who have an even more crowded field of candidates, have not yet met to make an endorsement.
The general election Senate race in Pennsylvania has been rated a toss-up by RealClearPolitics, with both parties planning on investing heavily in this must-win seat.
