To stop Vladimir Putin from assassinating people on your soil, you need to make him suffer when he assassinates people on your soil. Failing to impose costs on the Russian leader, he is emboldened to further bloodletting.
In that context, Germany’s expulsion of two Russian diplomats on Wednesday is a totally insufficient response to what appears to be Russia’s latest state-sanctioned murder.
The story begins back in August when Chechen exile Zelimkhan Khangoshvili was shot dead as he walked in Berlin’s Tiergarten park. A suspect, named under the alias Vadim S., was arrested on the day of the murder as he disposed of a disguise and firearm. German authorities announced on Wednesday that Putin’s “state agencies” or those of his Chechen sidekick, Ramzan Kadyrov, are likely to blame. Khangoshvili was a target of Moscow over his involvement in the former Chechen insurgency. But prosecutors are also struck by Vadim’s peculiar traveling activities, his past, and the nature of his killing.
After all, as with Russian assassins in other incidents, Vadim S. used a circuitous route to reach Berlin. He began in Moscow, then traveled to Paris, then to Warsaw, and finally on to Berlin. He was also apparently traveling on forged papers, and German prosecutors say he is a suspect in a similar murder in Moscow. The assassination methodology, involving an attack in disguise at a park located away from camera surveillance, also suggests Vadim S. has received professional training.
While it’s possible that Kadyrov might have launched this attack, the Chechen leader knows not to extend his assassinations into areas where Putin might suffer serious political blowback. That would certainly include Germany, which Putin values for its submission to his regional energy blackmail policy, and its weak support for NATO. It’s also worth noting here that Kadyrov occasionally acts as a useful cutout or intermediary for Putin’s own assassination ambitions.
Still, as I say, we should expect Putin to keep up his killing in the aftermath of Germany’s expulsion.
Chucking out only two diplomats — almost certainly Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover — Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government suggests it is desperate to do as little as possible to punish this attack. An attack such as this one should have meant Germany expelling dozens of diplomats. The principle at stake here is significant. Germany is a NATO ally, and it is allowing a foreign aggressor to launch attacks on its soil.
Where does this leave us?
Well, it should be clear to all by now that Putin does not respect appeasement or half-hearted retaliation. He respects strength, delivered commensurate to affront. Germany has suffered a serious affront. It makes a grave error pretending otherwise.
