President Trump leads top Democrats in Wisconsin but trails in Pennsylvania and Michigan, all Rust Belt states where voters delivered a slim victory for Trump in 2016, a new poll shows.
Results from Quinnipiac’s first poll of swing states for the 2020 general election cycle show Trump leading Democrats by 7 to 11 percentage points in Wisconsin, where his current approval rate is at an all-time high. Trump won Wisconsin by .77 points in 2016.
The surveys, conducted between Feb. 2 and 18, pitted Trump against Democratic primary contenders Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, and former Vice President Joe Biden.
In Pennsylvania, Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg trounced Trump among registered voters by between 6 to 8 percentage points. Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren beat him by small margins. For Warren, however, this fell within the poll’s 3.4 percentage point margin of error.
Results from Michigan delivered Sanders and Bloomberg a 5-point victory over the president. Biden was ahead by 4 points while Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar each received a lead within the margin of error.
Respondents in Wisconsin held the highest enthusiasm for the economy and said that they were better off today than in 2016. They also held more favorable views on how Trump has handled trade than voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan, where more voters disapproved of Trump on trade than approved.
The one constant was the economy, Quinnipiac University polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. “It’s a top issue for voters, and it’s giving President Trump a strong tailwind,” she said.
Trump’s job approval is higher in Wisconsin than it is nationally or in Pennsylvania or in Michigan. “These Wisconsin numbers are a red warning sign for Democrats that rebuilding the ‘blue wall’ in 2020 may not be so easy,” Snow said, “but it’s a long way to November.”
[Also read: Trump 2020 off to a roaring start while Democrats growl at each other]
