Going into the 2016 election, the general prospects for Obamacare under a new president seemed fairly straight forward: If a Republican won, the program as passed would be in jeopardy; if a Democrat won, it would remain intact.

But the quickly mounting failures of the law have made things far more complicated. Now it’s looking like either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is going to enter the White House facing a crumbling individual insurance market — without sufficient support in Congress to address the problem. This will cause an early face-off between the president and Congress, not unlike the 2011 debt ceiling crisis or 2013 government shutdown.