In most campaign cycles, by the time the primary comes around to my home state – Oklahoma – there is a clear frontrunner. For example, in 2008 Arizona Senator John McCain had a decisive lead over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who was the only other top-tier candidate left in the race.
But this year, four very different choices will appear on the Oklahoma ballot. These candidates are constantly jockeying for national frontrunner status, which means none of them is really a frontrunner. Never in recent history have Oklahomans felt so involved in the primary process.
Oklahoma GOP Chairman, Matt Pinnell, hopes this will result in more people coming out to the polls this coming Tuesday.
“This has been a very unique presidential race. We have spread the process out a bit more, there is no clear frontrunner. It adds more drama to it, with drama means excitement. I think that will mean a higher turn-out and higher level of participation.”
The most recent Real Clear Politics average shows former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with a resounding lead in the state. Santorum is beating Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich by a whopping 21 points. Santorum is projected to receive 41 percent of the vote. Romney and Gingrich are tied with 20.5 and 20 points, respectively. Texas Representative Ron Paul clocks in with only 7.5 percent of the vote.
Polling Data
| Poll |
Date |
Sample |
Santorum |
Romney |
Gingrich |
Paul |
Spread |
| RCP Average |
2/8 – 2/21 |
— |
41.0 |
20.5 |
20.0 |
7.5 |
Santorum +20.5 |
| Rasmussen Reports |
2/21 – 2/21 |
750 LV |
43 |
18 |
22 |
7 |
Santorum +21 |
| Sooner Poll |
2/8 – 2/16 |
300 LV |
39 |
23 |
18 |
8 |
Santorum +16 |
Pinnell attributes Santorum’s lead to his ability to appeal to the blue-collar communities in the state and called him a “rustbelt Huckabee.”
Santorum’s staggering lead in Oklahoma is visibly noticeable. At a recent town hall at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma more than 4,500 people came out to support Santorum. Persons in attendance told Red Alert Politics that the so-called town hall was quickly converted to a rally after it was clear many of the attendees were already Santorum supporters based on their Santorum t-shirts and signs they arrived with.
Newt Gingrich’s town hall at Oral Roberts University – the invitation was extended to all of the candidates by the ORU College Republicans – was not nearly as successful.. Less people attended Gingrich’s rally, and Pinnell believes that those in attendance were more interested in Gingrich as a historical figure than as a 2012 presidential candidate.
Robert Aery, President of the Foundation for the Preservation of American Values, observed after attending both townhalls that “Gingrich received a few more standing ovations. The crowd appeared to be quite impressed with his intelligence and grasp of the current issues.”
But Aery on to say that Santorum’s appeal to religious liberty will have a “more lasting effect on evangelicals” – a voting demographic not to be underestimated in Oklahoma.
However Pinnell said he thinks political prognosticators are underestimating Ron Paul robust grassroots operation in Oklahoma. Real Clear Politics has Paul polling at approximately seven percent, but Pinnell believes Ron Paul could win more than 15 percent of the vote, earning him a few delegates from the state. Oklahoma could be the one state where Mitt Romney comes in last.
While many commentators are complaining about how long this primary season is turning out to be, I for one am glad that the extended primary season is enfranchising Republicans in overlooked primary states like Oklahoma. Every Republican voter should have the opportunity to legitimately cast their vote for the preferred presidential candidate in their state’s primary or caucus.
