Now that Democrats have secured the 34 Senate votes needed to ensure survival of the Iran nuclear deal, some are hoping they can gather enough support to prevent a Republican resolution of disapproval from ever reaching President Obama’s desk.
Slim chance, say high ranking Democratic aides, but others are more optimistic.
“We certainly believe 41 votes are within reach,” said Neil Sroka, a spokesman for Democracy for America, a liberal political action committee that supports the deal.
On Wednesday, Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland became the 34th Democrat to register support for the deal. Her nod of approval ensures that even if the Republicans pass a resolution disapproving of the nuclear deal, Obama’s certain veto would be upheld by the Senate, thus keeping the deal alive.
Opponents of the deal will need 67 votes to override Obama’s veto, but 34 supporters means the most opponents can get is 66.
That makes the deal secure, but the next step is trying to avoid the need for Obama’s veto, and prevent the disapproval resolution from being passed in the first place. To make sure Obama can keep the cap on his veto pen, Democrats can try to filibuster the disapproval resolution in a procedural vote — 60 votes will be needed to advance the resolution, which means 41 votes is enough to prevent it from moving ahead.
Many proponents of the nuclear accord says it’s important that they avoid a veto standoff with Congress, which some believe would undermine what is likely to become Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement.
In an effort to shore up additional Democratic support and to combat opponents lobbying against the deal, including top Jewish organizations, Secretary of State John Kerry sent a letter to each House and Senate lawmaker Wednesday, pledging additional support and money for Israel and Gulf Coast allies in the region to defend against Iranian-sponsored terrorism and attacks that some believe the deal will enable.
“President Obama and this administration firmly believe we have an opportunity now to build and fortify the United States’ historic and enduring commitment to Israel’s security,” Kerry wrote.
Supporters of the agreement point to multiple paths for getting the 41 votes to filibuster the Senate’s effort to disapprove of the deal, although those closest to the whip count are pessimistic.
“It is not out of the realm of possibility but chances are slim,” a top Senate Democratic aide told the Washington Examiner. As of Wednesday, there were 10 undecided Senate Democrats, and seven more are needed to get to 41.
Among those “gettable” Democrats are Sens. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who have both praised parts of the accord.
“This decision I make could go either way,” Manchin told West Virginia’s Metronews “Talkline” on Wednesday. “I can justify voting against it or voting for it.”
Blumenthal, who is running for re-election, is considered to be leaning in favor of the deal, although he said last month there are “weaknesses” in the plan and it could have been better.
If Blumenthal and Manchin agree to support the deal, that leaves just five Democrats. Seven appear truly undecided, including Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Mark Warner of Virginia, and Ben Cardin of Maryland.
Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, seem to be leaning against the deal, but proponents hold out hope they can be convinced to change their minds if constituents push them to back it.
The Senate Democratic Whip’s office, led by Sen. Richard Durbin, of Illinois, wouldn’t say whether they are aiming for 41 lawmakers needed to block a resolution of disapproval.
“Senator Durbin’s goal from the beginning has been to build as much support for the deal as possible,” a Durbin spokesman said. “That hasn’t changed.”
House and Senate Republican leadership aides told the Examiner Wednesday that regardless of the Democratic tally in favor of the deal, they plan to vote on a resolution of disapproval in September.
The House should be able to easily pass a resolution of disapproval with a simple majority because Republicans have a 29-seat advantage.
Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is nonetheless working to round up Democratic support. She sent a letter to fellow Democratic House members on Wednesday urging them to support the deal.
The Senate will take it up first, with a plan to begin debating the resolution on Sept. 8. The House plans to vote on the deal by the end of next week.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who opposes the deal, accused the Obama Administration in a statement on Wednesday of politicizing the process. But he acknowledged the accord could not be stopped.
“While the president may be able to sustain a veto with the tepid, restricted and partisan support of one third of one House of Congress over Americans’ bipartisan opposition, it will require a bipartisan Congress to strengthen our defenses in the Persian Gulf and to stand up to the inevitable Iranian violations of the agreement that will need to be addressed after he has left office,” McConnell said. “And because this is not a treaty, it can and should be revisited by our new president.”
