Turkey cannot deter new attacks and earn Vladimir Putin’s compromises simply by bombing Bashar Assad’s forces.
I note this point in light of the dozens of reprisal strikes President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has authorized since Thursday’s killing of 33 Turkish soldiers by Syrian warplanes. Conducted with Russian authorization, that Syrian attack aimed to end Erdogan’s resistance against the ongoing Assad-Russian-Iranian axis offensive in Idlib governorate. That offensive aims to crush the last major redoubt of the rebellion that has been fighting Assad since 2011. Alongside the pressure on Erdogan, the Russians are orchestrating the targeting of hospitals and schools to crush Idlib’s morale and pressure Turkey with new refugee flows up to its borders.
But Erdogan is making a grievous error if he believes that smashing a few of Assad’s formations and facilities will alter the axis calculus here.
True, some of the Turkish strikes over the past 24 hours have been impressive. These have included airstrikes against Assad’s Russian-provided air defense systems and what Turkey claims, accurately or not, was a chemical weapons facility. The Turkish military is feeding strike videos to the media almost as soon as they take place. This is not incidental: Erdogan wants to show his people that he’s not weak.
And on paper, at least, the Russians are paring back from the brink. Concerned by NATO’s rapid alignment behind Turkey, Putin has quickly transitioned from refusing to meet with Erdogan and blaming him for the Syrian airstrikes to a more conciliatory line. Erdogan and Putin have spoken by phone, and Putin’s chief spokesman suggested on Friday that the two leaders may meet for an emergency summit next Thursday or Friday.
Still, Putin is dangling escalation in Erdogan’s face.
This was most obvious with Russia’s Friday morning deployment of two frigates from the Black Sea through Erdogan’s home town of Istanbul and into the Mediterranean Sea. Some of the best in the Russian fleet, both vessels are equipped with advanced variants of the Kalibr cruise missile, and one recently tested Russia’s newest hypersonic cruise missile. By sending these ships straight through Istanbul just after a Russian-enabled attack on Turkish forces, Putin is trying to show Erdogan who is boss. To his detriment in that regard, the Turkish leader allowed the Russian vessels passage.
The key here is that Turkey needs to keep the pressure on Putin. That is, if Erdogan wants any chance of restraining the Idlib offensive.
It is possible.
With already offered support from the United States and NATO, Turkey can strengthen its protective umbrella against new attacks. Assad’s economy is also ripe for new economic pressure of a degree that Russian support could not hope to alleviate. But equally important will be Erdogan’s near-term refusal to sit down with the Russian leader. Instead, Turkey should make any cease-fire discussions contingent on Putin’s suspension of the axis offensive in Idlib.
Absent that, Putin will again play Erdogan for a fool.
