Unemployment in the U.S. probably climbed in April to a 25-year high, showing the labor market will be one of the last areas to emerge from the worst recession in at least 50 years, economists said before reports this week.
The jobless rate jumped to 8.9 percent last month from 8.5 percent in March and employers cut at least 600,000 workers from payrolls for a fifth straight time, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a May 8 Labor Department report. Other figures may show service industries shrank at a slower pace.
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Companies may keep trimming staff and spending in a bid to shore up profits until sales show sustained gains, something economists say is unlikely to happen for months. Even when an economic rebound begins to take hold, the loss of jobs and smaller paychecks is likely to lead to a muted expansion.
“The recession will be officially over this year, but the recovery will be sluggish,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “Getting out of the jobs recession will take longer.”
An estimated 600,000 workers were cut from payrolls last month, according to the survey median, bringing total job losses since the recession began in December 2007 to 5.7 million, the most of any economic slump in the post-World War II era.
It’s “hard to fathom any sustained strength in consumer spending” until the “hefty” job losses ease, said BMO’s Gregory, who estimated the unemployment rate may rise to 9.5 percent by yearend and level off around 9.7 percent in 2010.
Economists project the Labor report may show manufacturers cut payrolls by 157,000 workers in April after a decline of 161,000 a month earlier.
One bright spot last month may have been government staffing for the 2010 census. The U.S. Census Bureau began hiring 140,000 temporary employees in April to start conducting the population count that happens once every 10 years. They are the first of more than 1.4 million people it will hire over the next year.
Another report may show service providers, which account for almost 90 percent of the economy, are starting to improve. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non-manufacturing businesses probably climbed to 42 in April, according to the Bloomberg survey. Readings below 50 signal contraction. The Tempe, Ariz.-based group will release the figures on May 5.
