A report from the National Academies of Sciences cooled optimism that the summer sun could stop the spread of the coronavirus.
With many diseases tapering off in the summer, some have hoped the same would be true for COVID-19. However, the National Academies of Sciences distributed a report to the White House on Tuesday showing that warmer temperatures would not significantly affect the spread of the virus.
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The study, which was published by approximately 12 members of the academies’ Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, revealed that heat and humidity effects on the virus were inconclusive. The scientists from the study warned that reports showing summer temperatures would slow the spread should be “interpreted with caution.”
There have been a few studies, including one out of China, that showed that warm weather could be key in stopping the virus. The National Academies of Sciences maintained that Americans should rely on social distancing, not the weather, to stop the coronavirus.
“There is some evidence to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread,” the report read.
It later stated, “Although the experimental studies show a relationship between higher temperatures and humidity levels, and reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, there are many other factors besides environmental temperature, humidity, and survival outside of the host, that influence and determine the transmission rates among humans in the ‘real world.’”
The report also noted that similar viruses, like SARS and MERS, have “not demonstrated any evidence of seasonality.” Seasonality refers to the tendency of a disease to reemerge during certain parts of the year, just as influenza thrives in the winter months. The scientists reported that many countries in their summer season are facing harsh outbreaks.
“Given that countries currently in ‘summer’ climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed,” they wrote.
Like much of the information about the coronavirus, the report notes that exact data about the spread of the virus will take months to produce. The study cited “short observational time windows” as one of the reasons it could not provide a definitive answer about the weather’s effect on the coronavirus.
