Comparing US Fed’s views on economy, next steps

Published September 13, 2012 5:59pm ET



A comparison of the Federal Reserve’s statements from its two-day meeting that ended Thursday and its meeting July 31-August 1:

IMMEDIATE STEPS:

August: The Fed said it would “continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June.”

September: The Fed “agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June … These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.”

FURTHER STEPS:

Then: The Fed inched closer to further action by saying it would “closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery.”

Now: The Fed is also promising to do even more if necessary: “If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”

OTHER MOVES:

Then: The Fed “currently anticipates that economic conditions — including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run — are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.”

Now: The Fed is extending the timeline for its ultra-low interest rates by about six months. It “currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.”

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS:

Then: The Fed “expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually.”

Now: The Fed “is concerned that without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.”

RECOVERY AND BEYOND:

Now: The Fed promised Thursday for the first time to continue its efforts even after the recovery improves: “To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the (Fed) expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.”