Will John Kerry Face a Serious Challenge in 2008?

It seems as if Massachusetts Republicans have found a promising challenger to square off against America’s favorite:

And after losing a much-closer-than-expected special House election in the state’s 5th district in October, Republican Jim Ogonowski is now strongly considering a bid against Kerry for Senate. “Every place I go people say, ‘Jim, you’ve got to run again,’ ” Ogonowski said Wednesday… Kerry is the more vulnerable of the state’s two Senators, according to Massachusetts Republican consultant Charley Manning. “Ted Kennedy is a Kennedy, first of all, in Massachusetts,” Manning said. “So he comes with all of that wealth of good feeling people have for his family.” Manning says Kerry has never done any of the “heavy lifting” for the state that Kennedy does and instead “always tried to play on the national” or “international level.” “He’s an aloof patrician who never really has connected with the people here,” Manning said. “He probably would have lost to [then- Massachusetts Gov.] Bill Weld [R] when Bill challenged him in 1996 if it hadn’t been for the Clinton landslide.”

There’s no question that Ogonowski would face an extraordinary challenge in a state as blue as Massachusetts — especially in an election year. In addition to the partisan edge, Ogonowski also has far less cash on hand than Kerry: $87,000 to $9.5 million at the end of the year. But unlike Kerry, Ogonowski just completed a run for Congress; he’s not supposed to have any money. And John Kerry’s national prominence almost guarantees that a legitimate Republican opponent would be able to count on raising millions nationwide. Further, polls consistently show that Massachusetts voters are underwhelmed by Kerry; a Suffolk University poll last year showed 56 percent think it’s time Kerry moved on. That could create an opening for the right Republican. Kerry is also being challenged in the Democratic primary by a private attorney named Ed O’Reilly. If you can believe it, O’Reilly is attacking Kerry from the Left; painting him as too conservative on Iraq, gay marriage, health care, impeachment and other issues. If the Democratic primary presents anything more than token opposition, it could weaken Kerry for the general election. Can Kerry be defeated? It’s a tall order. But stranger things have happened.

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