Here are a few brief thoughts on the New York Republican primary, which Donald Trump has won resoundingly.
Nomination Rules
Trump got about 60 percent of the vote Tuesday, but he’ll get roughly 96 percent of New York’s delegates. It’s certainly not the first state where Trump has gotten more delegates than his share of the vote. Remember Florida? Trump won with 46 percent of the vote, but got all 99 delegates. In fact, including New York, Trump has gotten a larger share of delegates than votes in 23 states. Ted Cruz can say the same for only 18 states (the process is clearly skewed against giving low-performing candidates delegates).
Overall, Trump has about 38 percent of the popular vote throughout the GOP primaries, but he has 47 percent of all delegates. For someone who complains about the nominating rules being “phony” and “rigged,” he seems to be benefiting more than anyone else.
Kasich won’t quit
John Kasich is a little bit testy about his losing streak. He got sassy with a reporter who asked him, “Governor, if you got to the convention in Cleveland and you’ve only won Ohio, do you think you’d qualify to be the nominee?” The narration in a commercial released by Kasich’s super PAC on April 13 said, “So when Trump and Cruz whine that Kasich should quit the race, John says, ‘You quit.'”
But rather than focusing on attacking Trump and keeping him from getting a majority of delegates, Kasich seems to prefer attacking Cruz. Since Marco Rubio dropped out of the race, Kasich’s super PAC has spent slightly more against Cruz. Between the super PAC and his campaign, Kasich has had eight commercials against Cruz and only four against Trump.
What’s next?
After the primary calendar slowed way down in the past month, it now starts to pick up speed. Five states vote next Tuesday, April 26: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Combined, about 9 percent of the votes required to clinch the GOP nomination will be up for grabs.
Polling has been pretty sparse. There’s been only one recent Connecticut poll, but it shows Trump getting 50 percent of the vote. If he can win a majority of the votes, he will probably take all 28 of Connecticut’s delegates. Trump also leads all the recent polls in Maryland, but by wildly different numbers. He leads in Pennsylvania by about 20 percentage points.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
