As President Trump tries to hold the states he flipped in 2016, Senate Republicans are trying to fight off a real possibility that Democrats will retake the upper chamber. At the crossroads of these two fights is Michigan Republican John James.
James is swimming against the electoral tide in Michigan’s Senate race. Whereas Republican incumbents in states such as Iowa, North Carolina, and Arizona are in danger of losing their seats, James is gaining ground in traditionally blue Michigan. He has narrowed the gap in the RealClearPolitics polling average to 3.8 percentage points, closer than Trump’s deficit to Joe Biden in the state.
James’s opponent is Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who has lower name recognition and a lower approval rating than Michigan’s other senator, Debbie Stabenow. In the 2018 “blue wave” election cycle, James only lost to the incumbent Stabenow by 6.5 points, a closer race than expected as Republicans lost two House seats and the governor’s mansion in Michigan.
Stabenow has been a senator since 2000, but Peters is running for reelection for the first time since winning his seat in 2014. James’s 2018 Senate run built him both a statewide profile and a Republican support structure, and he now represents the GOP’s second-best opportunity to pick up a seat after the certainly doomed Democrat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama.
Michigan has drawn in several of the nation’s major political issues. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was seriously considered to be Biden’s running mate, and while she has polled well in her coronavirus response, she was also one of the governors who made the inexcusable mistake of forcing nursing homes to accept infected patients. Meanwhile, the return of Big Ten football in the state has been credited to Trump, though his approval rating in Michigan remains relatively low.
Now the Senate faces another Supreme Court nomination, with Senate Democrats not wanting to repeat their embarrassing treatment of Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination in 2018. Yet, with Democrats like Kamala Harris and Mazie Hirono poised to take center stage, it’s possible that another Democratic debacle is unavoidable.
All of this could combine to create the perfect storm in the state. James faces a weaker opponent in a year which, while it may be an uphill climb for Republicans, will probably be a more level playing field than the 2018 wave. James has consistently shown that he is a quality candidate, and now he’s poised to beat the electoral odds in November.
