As the nation enters the holiday season, the coronavirus has accelerated e-commerce to levels the shipping industry has never experienced, and carriers are warning people to send gifts early or risk delivery delays.
“We are preparing for what promises to be an unprecedented peak,” a FedEx spokesperson told the Washington Examiner via email. “Our message to customers throughout the holiday season … is simple: Shop Early, Ship Early!”
Online sales are projected to total more than $189 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, according to the Adobe Analytics Holiday Forecast 2020. That is 33% above 2019 levels, which was also a record-breaking year.
Online shopping is up largely because more people plan to shop remotely due to the pandemic.
Over two-thirds, 71%, of people do not want to shop in stores this holiday season because they fear other shoppers won’t take the coronavirus seriously, according to polling by Morning Consult, a data intelligence company.
Also, 70% of respondents feel shopping inside a store makes them vulnerable to the virus regardless of whether people obey social distancing rules, the polling found.
The pandemic has also put a damper on holiday travel.
An overwhelming majority of respondents, 74%, do not plan to travel for the holidays and will partake in smaller gatherings. Meanwhile, nearly half, 49%, plan to shift from in-person holiday celebrations to virtual get-togethers. And 47% expect to cancel holiday festivities altogether this year, according to Morning Consult polling.
The decision not to congregate with friends and family this holiday season means more packages will be bought online and delivered by carriers, as 66% of respondents to the Morning Consult poll said they will give fewer gifts in person and, instead, will rely more on mailing gifts. That percentage is up from last year.
A spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation said her organization is expecting an increase in gifts being delivered by mail.
“This year, given the on-going impact of the coronavirus, online shopping is expected to be up,” the spokeswoman told the Washington Examiner via email.
A record number of shoppers, 60%, said they plan to shop online in 2020, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics’s annual survey. That number is up from the 56% who planned to shop online last year.
Shoppers will send gifts directly to 18% more people this holiday season, according to the Adobe Analytics Holiday Forecast 2020, meaning that more gifts in the pipeline will make it harder for carriers to make deliveries on time.
The surge in e-commerce has already led to multiple days in which shipping volume levels surpassed the daily average of 16 million pieces, FedEx reported.
“As a company, we have been operating at near peak-like levels for months now as consumers have increasingly shifted to a shop-from-home mindset, a trend we expect to increase significantly during the peak season,” the company’s spokesperson said.
FedEx projects that online shopping and shipping volumes this holiday season will break last year’s records several times over. It currently has more than 500,000 employees working to deliver packages, and it expects to add more than 70,000 positions to help in that effort.
“The team is well versed in implementing contingency plans to mitigate any potential delays caused by weather, mechanical issues, or traffic,” the spokesperson said.
FedEx also has 15 full-time meteorologists on staff, making it the largest in-house meteorology department in the express cargo industry and the second-largest staff among all United States airlines.
UPS, which hired 39,000 new employees in the second quarter of 2020, has recently brought on over 100,000 seasonal employees to keep up with package deliveries. Still, the company cautions shoppers to ship early.
“We recommend finding the best shipping option that meets their needs and getting gifts to their recipients earlier, rather than later,” a UPS spokesperson said via email.
Meanwhile, 64% of consumers won’t pay extra for fast shipping, according to the Adobe Analytics Holiday Forecast 2020, making early shopping and shipping essential if delays are to be avoided.
UPS estimates that packages being delivered by ground transportation should be sent by Dec. 15. However, the company notes that “shipments to certain destinations may require an earlier ship date.”
FedEx and the Postal Service also say that ground shipments should be sent by Dec. 15.
While the volume of gifts being sent via mail is expected to beat past records this year, the amount that people are spending on those presents is projected to dwindle from prior years, according to the Morning Consult.
Its polling found that 55% of respondents plan to spend less than $300 on holiday gifts this year, which is up 9% from last year. Big spenders are in the minority, with just 20% planning to spend $500 or more, which is 9% below the 2019 level.
The polling does not provide a reason for the decrease in spending, but the economy has suffered record unemployment levels since the pandemic hit the nation.
Another area expected to take a hit this holiday season is foot traffic in brick-and-mortar stores, according to Morning Consult polling.
In-store shopping overall is expected to contract 24% when compared to 2019.
Shopping malls, however, are projected to suffer a worse fate. Foot traffic is expected to plummet 28% when compared to last year. Shopping at department stores, such as Macy’s or Nordstrom, is expected to drop 23% from 2019 levels.
Shopping at big-box stores, such as Target or IKEA, is expected to be 13% less than last year, and discount stores are projected to see a 7% decline in shopper traffic from 2019.
