Democrats are downplaying the political consequences of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema‘s (I-AZ) defection from the party, some suggesting nothing will change and others cheering her departure.
But the breakup has underscored the acrimonious relationship between Democrats’ more liberal and centrist members, undermining their insistence it is a “big tent” party.
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Former Democratic consultant and Aggressive Progressive podcast host Christopher Hahn, for one, is urging Democrats to “tolerate” members of the party who are “reflective of their broader constituents and not only those who cater to the activists that dominate the base or they risk the same backlash that Republicans are facing.”
But despite Hahn’s advice and the practicality of Democrats keeping Sinema on their side, more liberal party members, such as Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), have publicly excoriated Sinema for her decision to leave — and privately, other Democrats said much worse, expressing similar frustrations to the protesters who infamously confronted the senator in an Arizona State University bathroom in 2021.
“Not once in this long soliloquy does Sinema offer a single concrete value or policy she believes in,” Ocasio-Cortez tweeted. “She lays out no goals for Arizonans, no vision, no commitments. It’s ‘no healthcare, just vibes’ for Senate. People deserve more. Grateful this race and nomination has opened up.”
Not once in this long soliloquy does Sinema offer a single concrete value or policy she believes in. She lays out no goals for Arizonans, no vision, no commitments.
It’s “no healthcare, just vibes” for Senate.
People deserve more. Grateful this race & nomination has opened up. https://t.co/qWvuKCT50r
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) December 9, 2022
“For the last year, we’ve been laying the groundwork to defeat Kyrsten Sinema because Arizonans deserve a senator who cares about them, and not special interests,” the Primary Sinema campaign wrote in a statement. “In one way, Sinema just made our jobs easier by bowing out of a Democratic primary she knew she couldn’t win. Now, we’ll beat her in the general election with a real Democrat.”
Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin dismissed concerns Sinema’s defection was evidence of a “big tent” problem in which more liberal party members were driving away centrist counterparts instead of building a broad winning coalition. That, for example, cost Democrats Rep. Kurt Schrader’s (D-OR) seat in Oregon and prompted former New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Yang to establish his Forward Party.
“The Democrats are a de facto coalition government, and there are always going to be people unhappy with the fact that they didn’t get everything they wanted,” said Hankin, analytic research firm Lincoln Park Strategies’s founder and president. “Coalitions are hard, and some people just don’t want to put in the work.”
Independent political analyst Dan Schnur described Sinema’s move as an “embarrassment” for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) considering the practical ramifications were mitigated by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) flipping Pennsylvania and Sinema’s promise to, like Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), not caucus with Republicans. The White House, for one, repeated that Sinema has been a “key partner,” even though she declined to attend Biden’s semiconductor event in Arizona this week.
“We understand that her decision to register as an independent in Arizona does not change the new Democratic majority control of the Senate, and we have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her,” press secretary Jean-Pierre wrote in a statement. “She has voted with the president 93% of the time,” she also said during Friday’s briefing. “We are very confident.”
Schumer added: “I believe she’s a good and effective senator, and am looking forward to a productive session in the new Democratic majority Senate. We will maintain our new majority on committees, exercise our subpoena power, and be able to clear nominees without discharge votes.”
But Sinema’s departure from the party will have repercussions for the 2024 elections when Democrats have to hold on to 23 contestable Senate seats to Republicans’ 10 for a majority in the chamber. Those seats include Sinema’s in Arizona, in addition to Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), two Democrats representing traditionally Republican states, as well as Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Democrats from battlegrounds. Independents, for instance, created issues for Oregon Gov.-elect Tina Kotek (D-OR) this year in her bid against Christine Drazan (R-OR) and Betsy Johnson (I-OR).
“The biggest impact will be in the 2024 campaign: Sinema and the Democratic nominee will likely end up cutting into each other’s support and increasing the chances for a Republican to win that seat,” said Schnur, the communications director of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) 2000 presidential campaign and the University of Southern California-Los Angeles Times state poll founder. “It was going to be a tough year for Senate Democrats anyway, and this makes it even more challenging.”
Sinema has not indicated whether she will seek reelection next cycle, with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) the top contender to replace her after speculation he was poised to primary Sinema before the incumbent’s announcement. A Fabrizio Ward-Impact Research poll for AARP had found Sinema’s favorable-unfavorable rating in September was 37%-54%.
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“At a time when our nation needs leadership most, Arizona deserves a voice that won’t back down in the face of struggle,” Gallego tweeted. “Unfortunately, Sen. Sinema is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done.”
My statement on Kyrsten Sinema abandoning the Democratic Partyhttps://t.co/QdrRf2mO5W pic.twitter.com/f0P3WZAdvA
— Ruben Gallego (@RubenGallego) December 9, 2022