SIMI VALLEY, Calif. — A diminished but still confident crowd of Republican contenders takes the stage for the second televised debate here Wednesday looking to re-energize their campaigns and reset the terms of the 2016 contest.
Perhaps the most distinguished GOP field of White House hopefuls in a generation was overshadowed and overtaken this summer by political outsiders who have never held (and in some cases, run) for office. New York businessman/entertainer Donald Trump continues to lead in nearly every state and national poll, with retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson nipping at his heels. Former technology executive Carly Fiorina also vaulted into contention since the first televised debate in August.
That ups the stakes for the eight other Republicans who were invited to participate in CNN’s prime time debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in this suburb just north of Los Angeles. For some, it’s a matter of using their camera time to increase their name recognition among a GOP electorate that is still largely doesn’t know who they are. For others with higher initial expectations, the event could be a crucial turning point.
“Debates today are more like American Idol than C-SPAN. A couple of these campaigns need a breakout performance in order to shift some attention away from Trump,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican operative who advised Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney four years ago.
It seems as though every aspect of the Republican primary since June has revolved around Trump.
The bombastic real estate mogul and reality television star who turned the race upside down and has defied political gravity since entering the contest in June. So political insiders viewing the debate are wondering: What will the moderators ask Trump? How will he respond? Will he fight with Fiorina and Carson, both of whom he has sparred with — and both of who have sparred with him. Indeed, there could be much on the line for all three.
But at the outset of the evening, the pressure is on others to arrest sliding poll numbers, light a fire under support that has been stagnant, and in general grab the attention of voters that has seen all of the oxygen sucked up by rich and famous outsider candidates. On that front, eyes are likely to turn to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, although they’re not the only candidates with something to prove.
Walker, who has seen his support in state and national polls take a nosedive, has been candid about the need to shine Wednesday evening, and vowed a more assertive performance than what he delivered in Cleveland in early August. The governor this month has focused attention on his record as a determined, bold, conservative reformer — that which propelled him into the national spotlight in the first place — precisely as fuel to use to make a refreshed case to voters in the debate.
“Getting back to who Walker is and using this as an opportunity to remind voters about the results-oriented, shaking up the status quo kind of person he is,” Walker’s team said, describing how he plans to attack the evening. “That’s why we did the speech drawing parallels between the governor’s record of wreaking havoc on status quo in Madison and plan to do so in Washington with Reagan’s drain the swamp mentality.”
Bush continues to be a factor in the race because of flush campaign and super PAC’s war chests. But supporters have been concerned about his middling poll numbers and are hoping that he will make a more vigorous case for his candidacy and record of reform in the Sunshine State. The Bush campaign did not rule out the governor getting into it on stage with Trump, as he has on the trail over the past few weeks.
The Bush team said Bush would make the case that he has a “proven conservative record, demonstrate he has a plan to reform a broken Washington, offer a hopeful and optimistic message and distinguish from Trump in those categories.” Not everyone is worried about Trump, so they claim, in any event. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are two that plan to stay in their lane.
“Marco had a terrific first debate in Cleveland, and he’s approaching the second debate the same way,” Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Conant said. “While other candidates are falling and need to mix things up tomorrow, we’re confident in our strategy and our campaign is on track. Don’t look for any big surprises from Marco tomorrow night. We’re just going to let Marco be Marco.”
“Our overall strategy is just to present the governor’s record,” Huckabee campaign spokesman Hogan Gidley added. “No one can do that better than him. He’s affable, knowledgeable and experienced and in a crowded field like this you have to stand out.”
The current frontrunners and surging candidates have a few of their own potential challenges.
Trump has yet to be aggressively confronted on policy or by the other candidates. The same goes for Carson and Fiorina, who are newer to the national spotlight than Trump. Fiorina is among the most articulate and prepared candidates on the stump, and her spokeswoman Sarah Isgur Flores joked that she was preparing for her first time on the prime time stage by “playing a lot of solitaire on her iPhone.”
With his recent rise in the polls, Carson could face tougher challenges from the moderators this time around, and a Republican campaign strategist warned that he better be prepared. In Cleveland, Carson had a weak performance but shined on the final question of the evening, and that was what the voters remembered. They could be looking for more substance and heft from him this time.
“Carson needs to have a good debate,” Republican operative Josh Holmes said. “He was basically given the kid glove treatment in debate one because of where he stood in the polls. But now he’s going to have to demonstrate to people that he as the chops to play at that level.”
Disclosure: The author’s wife works as an adviser to Scott Walker.
