The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, known as APEC, concluded without a joint communique for the first time in 29 years. What does that mean?
It means that U.S.-China relations are worse than they’ve been at any time in recent years. We can expect more fireworks when the world’s 20 largest economies meet later this month at the G-20 summit in Argentina.
Tellingly, after the two-day APEC meeting in Papua New Guinea, Vice President Mike Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping wrapped things up with speeches unusually heavy on criticism of the other. This wasn’t the de-escalation the standers-by had hoped for.
For the smaller Pacific Rim nations in attendance and caught in the trade war crossfire, Papua New Guinea Prime Minster Peter O’Neill, who also chaired the summit, articulated it best: “The entire world is worried.”
The only two countries that seem energized by the trade-dispute-turned-diplomatic-fracas, are the U.S. and China. Fanning the flames of disagreement, both dug into previous stances on their conditions for an agreement.
Pence antagonized China by demanding reform not just on economic measures, but also on a score of human rights abuses and unsavory methods of diplomacy.
For his part, Xi indicated that China would not be bullied by the U.S. and would not accept what it considers the use of international organizations to push back against China’s economic rise. Xi even went so far as to warn that escalating tensions could lead to a replay of the brutal warfare that ravaged the Pacific in World War II.
With these positions clearly articulated, despite lip service to the need for dialogue, the prospect is slim of the upcoming G-20 summit yielding an agreement on trade or anything else.
Instead of a grand signing ceremony and smiling presidents, the U.S. and China will likely trade more verbal punches as other countries watch nervously from the sidelines hoping that behind the scenes Beijing and Washington are working things out.
Based the failures of APEC to even bring the beginnings of a better relationship though, it’s probably best not to hold your breath for an agreement.
That means that for all of President Trump’s talk about his meeting with Xi in Argentina, the result will be even more tariffs and, likely, escalating tensions beyond commerce.
That should be a warning for Trump and Xi: A repeat performance of belligerent, verbal attacks and little prospect of an agreement will have serious consequences for both countries, not to mention their allies.
