With four weeks of games left in the regular season, there are a lot of great games ahead with big playoff implications. But of all the great games this week, these are the three you can’t miss.
Last week, my picks went a solid 2-1, and overall this season, I’m 25-14 straight-up and 21-17 against the spread (with one push). Here are my picks for the week.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) at Miami Dolphins (8-4), 1:00 p.m. EST on CBS
The Dolphins have had an interesting season to date, with Ryan Fitzpatrick guiding them to a great start and then Tua Tagovailoa keeping it going after taking over. Tua has yet to throw an interception this season and is completing just over 63% of his passes. He’s doing a good job of managing games but may have to play from behind on Sunday against the Chiefs.
One of the keys to Miami’s success this season is that the Dolphins have one of the best bend-but-don’t-break defenses in football.
They’re 16th in total yards allowed and are 15th against the pass and 21st against the run, yet the Dolphins are second in the NFL in scoring defense, first in third-down defense, ninth in red-zone defense, and fifth in interceptions.
The Dolphins force turnovers on 15.8% of opponents’ drives, the second-highest rate in the league, and lead the NFL by allowing offensive scores on just 26.3% of drives. Those are pretty incredible numbers.
That defense will be put to the test by Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Chiefs are second in scoring offense, first in passing offense, second in third-down offense, first in total yards gained, and first in yards per play.
They score on 52.9% of their drives, the best mark in the NFL, and turn the ball over on fewer than 7% of their drives. Only two other teams turn the ball over less on offense than the Chiefs do.
At the center of it all is Mahomes. He’s averaging nearly 340 yards per game through the air and has thrown a mind-blowing 31 touchdowns against just two interceptions. In addition to that, he’s second on the team in rushing yards and averages just over 20 per game.
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are both matchup nightmares. Kelce became the first tight end in NFL history with five 1,000-yard seasons last week. He leads the squad in receiving yards, catches, yards after the catch, and catches of at least 20 yards, while Hill leads the team in targets and receiving touchdowns.
One other underlying storyline in this game is playoff positioning. The Chiefs are still chasing the Steelers for the No. 1 seed since the Steelers have the tiebreaker. The Dolphins are currently in playoff position but are one game behind AFC East division leaders the Buffalo Bills — an upset win would put the Dolphins in strong playoff position, but a loss would probably mean they need some outside help to make it.
The line: Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0)
The pick: In their last four games, the Chiefs have won by 2, 4, 3, and 6 points. I like the Chiefs to win, but I’d grab the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3), 8:20 p.m. EST on NBC
The 1972 Dolphins were popping champagne after the previously unbeaten Steelers lost to Washington on Monday. Make no mistake, the Steelers aren’t suddenly mere mortals just because they lost a game. They’ve experienced and overcome adversity this season and have won close games.
The Steelers have what I believe to be the most complete defense in football this season. Take a look at their numbers:
Scoring defense — First
Points allowed — First
Yards allowed — Third
Yards per play allowed — Second
Pass defense — Second
Run defense — Sixth
Third-down defense — Fourth
Fourth-down defense — Second
Red-zone defense — Eighth
Sacks — First
Percentage of opponents’ drives that end in an offensive score — Second
Percentage of opponents’ drives that end with the Steelers getting a turnover — Third
But, as we know, the defense can’t do all the work. James Conner’s return will help spark Pittsburgh’s running attack, which is 29th out of 32 teams when it comes to rushing yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger has gotten the ball out of his hands quickly this season and is relying much more on quick passes than throwing it deep. He has completed just under 67% of his passes and has thrown 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Josh Allen’s fantastic play has the Bills atop the AFC East standings and in fantastic playoff position. Allen earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the third time this season after going 32-for-40 with 375 yards and four touchdowns against the 49ers on Monday Night Football. He has taken a big step forward in his development this season. He has been a bit more accurate than Big Ben this season and has thrown for around 200 more yards, but he also is second on the team in rushing yards and has six rushing touchdowns on the season. The touchdown and interception numbers are incredibly similar, as Allen has thrown 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season.
The Bills are the best team in football when it comes to converting on third down and score on nearly 49% of their drives. The former is a key reason for the latter. The Bills are fifth in yards per play and are third in passing offense, but, as I outlined before, the Steelers are elite in both of those categories from a defensive standpoint.
Interestingly, while the Bills have better offensive stats, they’re actually tied with the Steelers when it comes to scoring offense. The big discrepancy between the two squads comes from their scoring defenses. The Steelers have the NFL’s top-scoring defense, while the Bills are 18th.
The line: Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
The pick: Pittsburgh is the better team and should bounce back after its first and only loss of the season. I’m taking the Steelers to win as road underdogs.
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Cleveland Browns (9-3), 8:15 p.m. EST on ESPN
The NFL’s top two rushing teams will duke it out on Monday Night Football. The Ravens and Browns are in such different positions than when they played in the season opener. The Ravens demolished the Browns 38-6, but it’s the Browns who have won four in a row, while Baltimore has dropped three of its last four.
The Ravens are surprisingly on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture but have very winnable games against the Jaguars, Giants, and Bengals left on the schedule.
The Browns smashed a great Titans team in the first half and held Derrick Henry in check last week. Can they manage that feat again with Baltimore’s myriad of running options?
Lamar Jackson looked very good against the Cowboys in his return from COVID-19. He ran for over 90 yards and a score and also threw a pair of touchdown passes. Baker Mayfield was arguably even more impressive. He was 25-for-33 for 334 yards and four touchdowns while completing 75.8% of his passes.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the engines for this offense, just as Jackson, Mark Ingram II, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards are for the Ravens.
If both teams decide to key in on the run game defensively, will Jackson and Mayfield be able to pick apart the opposing defense? Jackson’s completion percentage is under 64%. Mayfield’s is under 63%. Neither has reached 2,500 passing yards this season.
Despite the two teams being close in many offensive categories, the Browns are clearly better in red-zone offense. They are scoring on 70% of their trips to the red zone, while the Ravens are only scoring on 55% of their trips inside the 20. Converting those opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals will be crucial.
The Ravens are third in scoring defense and third-down defense and have been consistent on that side of the ball for much of the season. They’ve only allowed two teams to score at least 30 points on them. One of them was the Chiefs, and the other was the Titans, who needed a touchdown in overtime to do it.
The Browns might be 22nd in scoring defense, but they are sneaky good in other areas. For instance, no team forces turnovers at a higher rate than the Browns. They force turnovers on 16.1% of opponents’ drives and are also eighth in run defense.
On the other hand, the Browns pale in comparison to the Ravens when it comes to preventing opponents from scoring in the first place. The Ravens are third in points allowed and are only allowing opponents to score on 30% of their drives, while the Browns are giving up points on nearly 43% of drives.
I’m looking forward to watching what should be a bruising game between two fierce AFC North opponents. Whichever team is able to win the battle at the line of scrimmage will gain the upper hand, but Jackson’s play will be the biggest X-factor.
The line: Baltimore Ravens (-1.0)
The pick: After watching the Browns bury the Titans last week, I’m surprised that the Ravens are favorites on the road. I’m taking the Browns to win as home underdogs.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
