Russian forces have refused to carry out orders and accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft, the head of Britain’s Government Communications Headquarters spy service alleged.
It “increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation,” Sir Jeremy Fleming said Thursday at the Australian National University.
The Russian leader “misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his action would galvanize,” he added. “He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He overestimated the ability of his military to secure a rapid victory.”
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Russian troops are also facing a shortage of weapons and morale, Fleming suggested. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters that morale was “flagging” about two weeks ago.
“We’ve seen Russian soldiers, short of weapons and morale, refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment, and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,” Fleming continued.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the department could “concur” with the reports, citing an anonymous U.S. official that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being “misinformed by his advisers” about how poorly the war in Ukraine is playing out on the battlefield.
The White House corroborated the reports as well Wednesday, with communications director Kate Bedingfield saying, “We believe that Putin is being misinformed by his advisers about how badly the Russian military is performing and how the Russian economy has been crippled by sanctions because his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth.”
Russia’s military operation has largely been a failure in the month since it began. Russian forces have not yet captured Kyiv, the capital, despite expecting to do so in mere days, the failure due in large part to a stronger-than-expected resistance from Ukrainian forces. In addition to a tougher-than-expected opponent, Russia has also faced a number of self-inflicted mistakes that have hampered its efforts.
“They still seem to be plagued by logistics and sustainment challenges,” a senior U.S. defense official said earlier this month. “They still are struggling to overcome fuel shortages, food shortages, and making sure that they can, in terms of ground troops, that they are able to arm themselves and defend themselves. And so they’re still working their way through that.”
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In addition to those problems, other soldiers have been “taken out of the fight because of frostbite,” the official told reporters last week. “They lack the appropriate cold weather gear for the environment that they’re in.”
In lieu of success, they have resorted to attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure, destroying entire cities. The Biden administration accused Russian forces of committing war crimes, and over the weekend, President Joe Biden called for Putin’s removal from office, only for it to be walked back shortly after.
U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet reported Tuesday that 1,179 civilians have been killed, with another 1,860 wounded, warning that the real number is likely to be “considerably higher,” but the war makes tallying injuries and deaths a difficult task. It’s unclear how much higher the total could be.
