As Election Day comes closer and polling numbers become clearer, there seem to be four simple ways for Hillary Clinton to win the White House.
The six Clinton victory scenarios assume there are seven swing states: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Maine (4), Nevada (6), North Carolina (15) and Ohio (18). All of these states are within less than 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, using polling for a three- or four-way race when available.
Recommended Stories
A little more than a week ago, I analyzed seven potential Trump victory scenarios with seven swing states. But given recent polling, this new analysis is based on Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) moving in Clinton’s camp and New Hampshire (four) leaving her camp to become a swing state.
If we give the candidates every state in which they’re currently at or above a 5 percentage point lead in the polls, Clinton is already at 261 electoral votes with Trump at 185. Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes to win the election.
The good news for Clinton: None of the seven swing states are must-win states.
For Trump, there are five must-win states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
For those ready to get the election over with, none of the combinations can result in a tie (though this assumes Clinton manages to win one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes).
Keep in mind, some of these averages include polls taken before the first presidential debate and the race seems to have changed significantly since then.
There’s also a large number of third-party voters. That number typically drops as Election Day approaches. For the time being, Clinton and Trump combine for only 85 percent of the popular vote.
That said, here are Clinton’s four easy paths to victory.
Path 1
Clinton wins Colorado, where she leads by 4.3 percentage points on average.
Path 2
Clinton wins North Carolina, where she leads by 2.6 percentage points on average.
Path 3
Clinton wins Florida, where she leads by 2.4 percentage points on average.
Path 4
Clinton wins Maine and Nevada, where she leads by 3.8 and 1.4 percentage points on average.
Clinton could also win the election by winning either Arizona or Ohio, but Trump leads by 1 and 1.6 percentage points on average in those states. So even though those are swing states, it wouldn’t necessarily be “easy” for Clinton to flip them to her side. For these four paths, all Clinton has to do is maintain her current edge in a few states.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
