For better or worse, porn star Stormy Daniels could have faded into the mist of 2016 long ago had the president never offered her a settlement.
Everyone who pulled the lever for Trump two years ago knew, quite literally, they were electing a playboy. Had Daniels stepped forward with her full story before the election, it would only have served to reinforce a well-established narrative. Many of Trump’s votes came from people who were already overlooking his reputation in the interest of achieving Republican policy goals, keeping Hillary Clinton out of the White House, or some combination of both. And plenty of his loyal followers would have believed him had he denied it.
If Daniels had told her full story in 2016 and Trump had dismissed it as fake news, I’m not sure how many votes he would have actually lost. For that matter, even if he had admitted and apologized for it at the time, he may well have still stood a chance against Clinton. (A March poll found 56 percent of voters believe Daniels is telling the truth, yet 46 percent of all those surveyed also said it made no difference in their view of Trump’s favorability.)
And if the settlement had been reached on less shady terms, its entrance into the media this year would have been more easily handled for a president who openly admitted years ago to cheating on his first wife with his second.
Instead, it’s the cover-up (and the cover-up of the cover-up) that have created a mess for the White House, driving news cycle after news cycle dedicated to probing various inconsistencies and legal questions.
This is, of course, nothing more than a thought experiment, and the 2016 election was a historically close one. Further, per Rudy Giuliani’s account, Trump settled with Daniels for personal reasons (to preserve his marriage), rather than political ones. But it’s striking to take a step back from the entire Daniels saga, from the breathless offense and defense, from the dramatic prime-time interviews, and consider whether all of it is actually rooted in an allegation that may never have proven fatal in the first place.
