A new poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa finds Donald Trump and Ben Carson tied for the lead at 23 percent support. The Monmouth University poll is the first since July to show Trump not in the sole lead position in Iowa.
Behind Trump and Carson in the poll is Carly Fiorina at 10 percent support. All three top candidates are not officeholders and only one, Fiorina, has ever run for public office before.
The remaining Republican candidates, all current or former elected officials, poll in the single digits, with Ted Cruz at nine percent, Scott Walker at seven percent, Jeb Bush at five percent, John Kasich and Marco Rubio at four percent each,Rand Paul at three percent, and Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum each at two percent.
Carson appears to be doing better than Trump among evangelical voters, winning 29 percent of them compared to Trump’s 23 percent, while Trump does better with non-evangelicals, 24 percent to Carson’s 18 percent. While both candidates are doing about equally well with “very conservative” and “somewhat conservative” voters, “moderate to liberal” voters prefer Trump by a significant amount, 26 percent to Carson’s 18 percent and Fiorina’s 13 percent. Women also prefer Carson to Trump, and for men it’s the other way around.
In the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump still has a seven-point lead over Carson, his closest competition.
