Enrollment in D.C. Public Schools has been cut in half since 1980, dropping consistently through several generations from 100,000 students in 1980 to the 45,000 expected in the traditional public schools when classes start on Monday.
But now, D.C. public school officials say they believe this year’s students will be the front end of a system-wide turnaround.
Since 1980, nearly 30,000 students have left the city’s public school system for the promise of opportunities elsewhere. As the city’s schools have seen enrollment slip from more than 100,000 students to less than 73,000 in public and charter schools, suburban systems have grown by up to 40 percent. Private schools have attracted families even as many command a hefty tuition.
Since 1980, more than 50,000 students have left the regular public schools, which are now under the control of Chancellor Michelle Rhee. Charter schools — publicly funded but independently operated — opened in the District in 1996; their enrollment climbed to about 25,600 students last spring.
By Monday’s first school bell, charters project at least 28,000 students, or about 2,400 more than last year, while D.C. Public Schools expect about 45,000, or 2,000 fewer than in spring.
“I would expect that if the changes that are brought about by the charters and DCPS take root, I would expect a total turn-around in the next two to three years,” said Tom Nida, chairman of the city’s Public Charter School Board.
“The charters’ challenge will be more competitive options from DCPS,” Nida said. “We’ll be pressed to stay on our game.”
Rhee said she expects regular public schools’ declines to level off by next year and enrollment to creep up soon afterward.
“We knew last year there was going to be a big drop-off because of school closings and consolidations,” she said. The district closed 23 schools last summer due to under-enrollment. Only three schools have been closed in advance of the current year.
In addition, Rhee’s central office devised a public relations campaign designed to catch the eyes and ears of city residents — advertisements for the public schools are running on city buses and radio stations. But she said they’re hardly banking on the effort in the short term.
“We didn’t think a flood of students would come in just because we put ads on buses,” Rhee said. “But it’s a signal to residents that a lot of things are happening in the schools.”
Rhee said the schools are “absolutely ready” for Monday’s stampede of students. Facilities are on track and schools are fully staffed, she said. The system has fewer than 20 teacher vacancies.
Even the most optimistic officials, however, have no perfect way to predict how many students will fill their classrooms next week and in the coming months.
“There isn’t another system in the country, except maybe New Orleans, where the dynamics are so complicated,” said Margery Turner, vice president for research at the Urban Institute.
The amount of choice between regular and charter schools makes it nearly impossible to predict who will end up where, Turner said. And the city’s high dropout rate means thousands of teenagers might come back to school, or might choose to stay on the streets.
“All of those factors … make enrollment especially hard to predict,” Turner said.
