In 2006, the Orioles lost 18 games in which they were eithertied or had a lead after six innings. To reverse that trend, the club went on a free-agent spending spree to revamp the bullpen, committing more than $42 million in multi-year contracts to relief specialists Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Danys Baez.
So, can we add 18 wins to the 70 victories the Orioles posted last year? Not so fast, kids.
Under the best of conditions ? and keeping in mind that some of those games were tied after six ? you?d like to be able to split the difference and look for a win total in the 79-81 range. In other words, the 2007 Orioles, after nine straight losing seasons, look like a team ready to break even.
No matter how you slice it, it still comes down to how many runs you score and how many the other guys score. Last year, Baltimore?s pitching surrendered 899 runs while the offense scored 768 runs. Not the kind of numbers that translate into winning baseball, but you?d probably already figured that out. Just do the math: If runs were fractionalized, the average game was a 5.5-4.7 defeat.
Here?s the good news: Of those 899 runs, more than 500 were allowed by pitchers who are no longer with the team. The replacement pitchers who most likely will be on the roster on Monday gave up fewer than 300 runs last year. Now, I?m not so stupid that I?d predict Orioles? pitching will allow as many as 200 fewer runs. But if, only hypothetically, they lowered the team ERA from last year?s pathetic 5.35, to say, somewhere around 4.75 ? a shade more than a half-run per game ? you?d probably see as many wins as losses.
A year ago, the Orioles were hit harder than any other team by the World Baseball Classic. More Orioles left spring training to play for their home countries, and as a result, freshly minted pitching guru Leo Mazzone had little time to spend with his new charges. The first-half results were disastrous, but after the All-Star break, things changed, and remarkably so. Erik Bedard loweredhis ERA by more than a full run. Adam Loewen dropped his by almost two-and-a-half runs. Daniel Cabrera by almost a full run. Shoot, even the now-departed Rodrigo Lopez lowered his ERA by more than two runs.
If the trend continues ? and if the improved offense holds up its end of the bargain ? the 2007 Orioles should get back to a .500 or better winning percentage. It may be no better than 81-81, but an 11-game swing would be solid improvement, and would set the stage for a run at contention in 2008.
One thing?s certain: The AL East isn?t the NL Central. St. Louis managed only 83 wins during the regular season last year and hoisted a world champion?s flag on Opening Day. If Baltimore wins 83 games this year, they?re still likely looking at fourth place.
A winning season by itself doesn?t solve every problem, but it might smooth a few ruffled feathers among the Orioles? faithful.
Phil Wood has covered sports in the Washington-Baltimore market for more than 30 years. You can reach him at [email protected].
