The upcoming prime-time television season spells trouble for incumbent politicians, and their consultants should take note. The broadcast networks are developing pilots that could end up as series on their fall schedules — pilots that include a number of dramas full of anti-government, and therefore anti-incumbent, messages. The movement is most acute at the two most popular networks: CBS and ABC.
The networks will support these dramas for the new TV season with multimillion-dollar promotional campaigns that begin in early August and reach their heights in mid- to late-September — just as incumbents will be competing for paid air time with their re-election messages. By late October and early November we can expect some, but certainly not all, of these shows to be hits.
According to the trade journal Television Week, some of the programs in development include:
• “A House Divided”: A show about a farming town that leads a civil war against the U.S. government (ABC)
• “Sixty Minute Man”: A man who can’t remember one hour of each day wonders if he’s part of a government conspiracy (ABC)
• “Twenty Questions”: A State Department employee stumbles upon a conspiracy to undermine the government (ABC)
• “Waterfront”: A brilliant but immoral mayor deals with politicians, the mob and his family (CBS).
The networks have become very sophisticated in gauging popular opinion and their program developments reflect these thoughts. For instance, CBS operates its Television City Research Center in Las Vegas. Tourists watch plots of various TV shows that are under consideration for the fall and then provide their opinions. The goal is to green light shows that audiences will want to watch.
Obviously, the networks are tapping into some feeling that is very strong — it’s not by coincidence that so many of the new dramas have a threatening government tone. By turning these feelings into TV shows, the networks will reinforce American attitudes this year that our government and its leaders are out of touch and conspiring against us.
The most successful TV shows in history have always been ones that have reflected popular culture. “Leave it to Beaver” and its ilk from the 1950s showcased Americans’ desire for a happy home life after the tumultuous ’40s. “Laugh-In” in the ’60s was a reflection of the free love culture; “M*A*S*H,” while technically about the Korean War, was really about the frustrations of Vietnam. “Dallas” and “Dynasty” were templates for the extravagances and excesses of the 1980s.
There is a huge tendency in political campaigns to be ignorant of cultural forces that are influencing public opinion. This is true because campaigns are so life-consuming that staff and candidates have no time to watch TV or engage in conversations about popular culture, especially in the final weeks of a campaign.
So political gurus should consider this as a warning of what voters will be thinking about and watching as the leaves start to turn colors in a few months. This trend will especially affect older Americans who tend to be heavier viewers of network prime time television and are also the most reliable voters. Coinciding with this network deluge will be reminders in the news and in paid media about government fumbles in Iraq, wiretapping, CIA outing, Hurricane Katrina and Medicare drug benefit mistakes.
Perhaps an incumbent could use humor to blunt some of the sting in a town hall meeting — “Well, you may have seen the green Martians that have taken over D.C. if you are watching the new shows on ABC, but I’m here to tell you the only thing we are really worried about back in the Capitol are the lobbyists!” Most of all, an incumbent this year will especially want to appear reliable, trustworthy and a part of the solution — not the problem.
However, there is good news for challengers. They won’t have to spend an inordinate amount of time telling voters via TV that those in power are wicked, evil people up to no good who are fighting against the little guy. This year, network television will help them do the trick.
Adam Shapiro is an assistant vice president with Widmeyer Communications in Washington.
