CLOSER TO WAR: For decades one of North Korea’s chief exports has been over-the-top bellicose rhetoric aimed at intimidating the U.S. and South Korea. A succession of Kim regimes have routinely threatened to turn Seoul, South Korea’s capital, into “a lake of fire.” The U.S. response has always been to downplay the vitriol from Pyongyang, and insist the U.S. military presence in the the region is purely defensive. But yesterday marked a turning point, as North Korea escalated its threats in response to new punishing sanctions passed unanimously by the United Nations Security Council, and President Trump decided to fight verbal fire with a fiery rejoinder of his own. While you’ve no doubt heard the quote by now, it’s worth revisiting it in its entirety:
“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. He has been very threatening, beyond a normal statement. And as I said, they will be met with fire, fury, and, frankly, power the likes of which this world has never seen before.”
It was widely seen as a thinly-veiled threat to use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive attack, although “power the likes of which this world has never seen” could also refer to a devastating conventional attack. Speaking in Seoul in February, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said, “Any attack on the United States or on our allies will be defeated and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with the response that would be effective and overwhelming.”
But Trump’s pronouncement seemed to draw a new red line, implying the U.S. would act in response to threats, presumably not just Pyongyang’s unending stream of bellicose bombast, but also its untempered race to deploy a nuclear-tipped missile capable of holding major U.S. cities at risk.
GUAM IN THE CROSSHAIRS: In response, North Korea simply doubled down on its war talk, threatening a “Korean-style pre-emptive retaliatory operation of justice,” and saying it was “now carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam with medium-to-long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12,” according to the official Korean Central News Agency. Guam is a U.S. territory and home base for the B-1B bombers that routinely fly over South Korea in a show of force. Another pair of B-1s flew over the peninsula Monday, again provoking denunciation from a Korean People’s Army spokesman, in a statement carried by state-run KCNA news agency. “This signifies the U.S. imperialist warmongers’ vicious moves for a sudden attack on the strategic objects of the DPRK anytime,” the statement said.
‘MISSILE-READY’ NUKES, A GAME CHANGER: The president’s decision to engage North Korea in a war of words came just hours after a Washington Post report that quoted a classified assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which concluded the North has succeeded in making a nuclear weapon small enough to fit atop an intercontinental ballistic missile, a significant technical achievement. The Post report said the DIA assessment, completed in July, matched a separate assessment by the Japanese defense ministry released last week that said North Korea can produce miniaturized nuclear bombs. “The IC (Intelligence Community) assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery, to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles,” the report stated. According to the Post, the U.S. determined in July that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un currently has up to 60 nuclear weapons in his growing arsenal, although some believe the number is smaller. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, the most recent in September 2016.
The U.S. policy for the past few years has been to take North Korea’s claim to have developed nuclear warheads at face value, even though so far it has not demonstrated the capability. “I must assume that Kim Jong Un’s nuclear claims are true,” Adm. Harry Harris told Congress in April. “I know his aspirations certainly are.”
McCAIN WARNS AGAINST EMPTY THREATS: After the president threatened “fire and fury,” Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., issued his own warning on North Korea and Trump’s rhetoric. “The great leaders I’ve seen don’t threaten unless they’re ready to act, and I’m not sure President Trump is ready to act,” McCain told KTAR News, a local radio station. “I take exception to the president’s comments because you got to be sure you can do what you say you’re going to do.”
The Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said the U.S. should be focused on working with China and building up its missile defenses in the wake of the new assessment on the North’s ability to build a miniaturized nuclear warhead. McCain said he did not believe the North was prepared to go to war and that Trump’s statements might have been partly bluster. “It’s not terrible in what he said. It’s the classic Trump in that he overstates things,” McCain told the radio station.
WAR WORRIES RISE: A majority of U.S. adults are worried about a possible conflict with North Korea, and aren’t sure Trump will be able to handle the situation, according to a CBS News poll released yesterday. Trump tried to inject confidence into the situation Tuesday morning, by tweeting that countries are finally working together to handle the rogue regime. “After many years of failure, countries are coming together to finally address the dangers posed by North Korea,” he tweeted. “We must be tough & decisive!”
But most adults so far don’t have confidence that Trump can pull it off. The Aug. 3-6 survey found 72 percent of people are “uneasy about [a] possible conflict” and just 26 percent are “confident things will be resolved” before military action is taken by either country. The poll said 61 percent are “uneasy” about Trump’s response to military action by North Korea leader Kim, and just 35 percent of respondents are “confident” Trump will properly handle the situation.
ANOTHER CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS? “It represents the greatest crisis probably since – let me rephrase that – undoubtedly, since the Cuban missile crisis,” said Rep. Darrell Issa on CNN yesterday. “The correlation is very similar. This is something that can hit us and our allies, and it’s with a rogue nation that we suspect would use it,” said Issa, who serves on the House Foreign Relations Committee. On MSNBC, Democratic Sen. Ed Markey also compared the situation today to 1962, calling the showdown with North Korea a “modern day Cuban missile crisis.”
“If this is not handled properly and it escalates out of control, we could trip a crosswire that we can’t even see right now, and begin an entanglement that turns military and then escalates out of our control very quickly,” Markey said.
RUSSIA ON NORTH KOREA: Russia’s top diplomat downplayed North Korea’s nuclear saber-rattling following a diplomatic summit on Tuesday, and said the United States has to take “prudent” steps to de-escalate the crisis. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that North Korea always complains about sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council. “Strictly speaking, this is how representatives of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have reacted to all previous U.N. Security Council resolutions,” Lavrov said.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24) is off this week. Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: The escalating tension with North Korea has not prompted any change in travel plans for Mattis, who heads to the West Coast for an inspection tour of a submarine base in Washington State, and a visit to Silicon Valley to get briefed on the efforts of the Defense Innovation Unit-Experimental, or “DIU-x,” which was a pet project of former Defense Secretary Ash Carter.
Yesterday, while all the North Korea news was breaking, Mattis was meeting with his Vietnamese defense minister at the Pentagon. Relations between the two countries has been warming over the four decades since the end of the war. Mattis and Ngo Xuan Lich agreed on “actions to deepen defense cooperation,” according to a Pentagon readout of the meeting, including “hosting the first visit by a U.S. aircraft carrier to Vietnam next year, expanding naval cooperation, and increasing information-sharing.”
IRANIAN DRONE BUZZES F-18: The U.S. said an Iranian drone got in the way of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet yesterday as it was preparing to land on the USS Nimitz in international waters in the Arabian Gulf. The F/A-18E had to execute a quick maneuver to avoid contact with the drone, which at one point was roughly 200 feet away horizontally and about 100 feet vertically.
“The dangerous maneuver by the QOM-1 in the known vicinity of fixed wing flight operations, and at coincident altitude with operating aircraft, created a collision hazard and is not in keeping with international maritime customs and laws,” said Cmdr. Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
Meanwhile, the Navy has informed families of the USS Nimitz crew that the carrier will extend its stay in the Arabian Gulf beyond its six-month deployment.
MARINE COs RELIEVED: The Marine Corps has been working for months to root out a culture of misogyny following revelations in March that Marines and other troops were sharing nude photos and lewd comments about fellow service members online. A top general said Tuesday that two commanders have been relieved partly due to their handling of the scandal. The two who were relieved for a lack of trust and confidence “I can directly attribute to an awareness of this issue and the fact that they did not have the correct command climate and what they did,” said Gen. Glenn Walters, an assistant Marine commandant and the head of a task force investigating photo sharing on 168 social media sites. To date, one Marine has been sent to summary court martial and 32 others have received lesser, non-judicial or administrative punishments, according to the service.
MARINES MULL MORE FEMALE COMBAT TRAINING: The U.S. Marine Corps is considering whether to allow women to attend combat training in Southern California, which currently admits only male Marines, according to a report. Marine Corps officials told the Associated Press the shift could occur as early as next spring, which would let women attend combat training at Camp Pendleton in San Diego, Calif. Currently, female Marines can only get combat training in Parris Island, S.C,, while men are trained at both locations.
PRINCE’S PRIVATE FORCE: Trump is weighing a proposal to send 5,500 private security contractors and a private air force of 90 planes to Afghanistan as an alternative to sending more U.S. troops in order to turn the tide of the nearly 16-year-old war, according to USA Today. Erik Prince, a former Navy SEAL and founder of the Blackwater security firm, has been pushing a privatization of U.S. forces in the country amid a stalemate with the Taliban and told the newspaper the White House is now actively considering it. Prince is the brother of Betsy DeVos, who is Trump’s education secretary.
The private contractors would be mostly former U.S. special operators and would help advise Afghan security forces, and the aircraft would provide air support to those forces, according to the report. There are currently about 8,400 U.S. troops deployed to Afghanistan. Both Mattis and White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster have apparently voiced doubts about the privatization proposal, but chief White House strategist Steve Bannon is entertaining the idea, the report said. Prince founded Blackwater and the company rose to become a powerhouse contractor for providing security for the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan. He later sold the company and it was renamed. In 2007, Blackwater security guards opened fire on civilians in Iraq’s Nisour Square, killing or injuring 31 and igniting a debate about U.S. excesses and the use of contractors in wars that had slipped into violent insurgencies.
TARGETING McMASTER: The White House national security adviser has drawn the wrath of Trump’s populist supporters, friendly media outlets and allies of chief strategist Steve Bannon as the dynamics of the West Wing once again shift amid a staffing shake-up that shows no signs of slowing down. Tensions between Bannon and H.R. McMaster, who took the reins of the National Security Council in February, bubbled over late last week after McMaster dismissed a top NSC aide who was widely viewed as an advocate for the president’s campaign promises. Amid the subsequent backlash from Trump’s nexus of populist supporters, the president issued a rare statement of support for McMaster. Internal rivalries have ebbed and flowed throughout Trump’s young presidency with little lasting effect on the White House hierarchy until recently. The White House’s roster of top staffers remained stable through months of intrigue until the recent departures of press secretary Sean Spicer and outgoing chief of staff Reince Priebus.
THE GUNS OF AUGUST: The dog days of August are typically a slow time Washington, with Congress on a break, and the president on vacation. But historically it’s during the “slow” month that fast-breaking new happens. It was in August that several military actions kicked off, including the 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the 1998 cruise missile strike in Afghanistan that missed Osama bin Laden, and the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident that began the Vietnam War.
THE RUNDOWN
AP: Vehicle hits soldiers in Paris suburb, injuring 6
USA Today: North Korea, U.S. timeline: 13 days of increasing tension
Roll Call: Cautious congressional response to Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ with North Korea
Politico: Alaska governor ‘concerned’ about missile hitting state
New York Times: North Korea’s alarmed neighbors consider deploying deadlier weapons
Bloomberg: Air Force pressing Northrop over a damaged radar, extra fees
Daily Beast: Pentagon to Bannon’s Blackwater buddy Erik Prince: GTFO
USNI News: Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower heads to Norfolk naval shipyard for 6-month maintenance availability
Wall Street Journal: Tillerson presses Asian nations to clamp down on North Korea
DoD Buzz: Pentagon moves more Marines to Afghanistan to support advisory mission
War on the Rocks: Deterring North Korea: The next nuclear-tailoring agenda
Fox News: Trump’s generals: President turns to military men for counsel, order
UPI: Raytheon receives $66.4 million contract for SM-3 Block IIA missile
Defense Daily: F-35 Upgrade Plan Nears Completion, GAO Says
Defense One: ISIS says secret weapons await coalition forces in battle for Raqqa
Kyodo News: Damaged destroyer to return to U.S. on heavy lift ship in fall
Miami Herald: Guantanamo Navy base cancels privileges for cat-lovers’ club Git-Meow
Calendar
WEEK AHEAD
FRIDAY | AUG. 11
8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Middle East missile realities discussion with Uzi Rubin, former director of the Israeli Missile Defense Organization. mitchellaerospacepower.org
1:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The future of U.S.-Taiwan relations in new administrations. heritage.org
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 16
8 a.m. 1201 M St. SE. NDIA Systems Engineering Division meeting. ndia.org
8:30 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Trusted micro electronics workshop. ndia.org
