Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Ranking the NFL Playoff Contenders

Now that the postseason field has been announced, for this week TMQ re-ranks teams based solely on performance versus other 2017 contenders. The picture that emerges is:

New England 5-2

Minnesota, Pittsburgh 3-2

Carolina, New Orleans 4-4

Philadelphia, Tennessee 2-1

LA/A, Kansas City 2-2

Buffalo 2-4

Atlanta 2-5

Jacksonville 1-3

Authentic Games thinking considers that high-pressure situations forge great teams. Thus the Panthers and Saints look better at 4-4 than the Eagles and Titans at 2-1, even if the latter record has a higher winning percentage.

It’s fun that this postseason is the first since 2000 to allow for the possibility of a Buffalo-Minnesota Super Bowl. Your columnist long has rooted for this outcome, since the two clubs are a combined 0-8 in the ultimate contest. One of them would have to win! But according to the Authentic Games metric, what’s going to happen is a New England-Minnesota Super Bowl.

Here are comments on each of the final 12 teams, in ascending order of their importance:

Jacksonville. The Jags scored seven touchdowns on defense in the regular season, which is like eating dessert before dinner every day of the week. But there’s a lot of luck involved in defensive touchdowns, and luck cannot be counted on in the playoffs.

Jacksonville fields a quality young defense that is, to 2017, what the Seahawks’ quality young defense was to 2013. But at Tennessee in the season finale, Jacksonville recorded only three offensive points, despite playing starters the whole game. Pass protection was poor, and receivers dropped throws. The two worst offenses of this postseason will meet in the wild-card round when the Jags host Buffalo; the fine Jax front seven should carry that contest. Jacksonville is unlikely to advance from the divisional round, but simply reaching that round makes the season a success for this club.

Atlanta. Matt Ryan is 3-5 in the postseason. It’s not just that he honked the second half of the Super Bowl last year—he’s honked many playoff games. Tuesday Morning Quarterback notes that as the playoffs progress and the pressure cranks up, defense tends to assert itself while high-scoring, rhythm-based offenses tend to wilt. (More on this is coming in January columns.) This factor does not augur well for the Falcons. At least the NFC defending champs avoid becoming yet another Super Bowl entrant to miss the playoffs the following year.

Buffalo. Three cheers for Kyle Williams! This over-achiever defensive tackle has labored 12 seasons for the Bills without ever getting a playoff invite on his dance card. Now he’s scored a touchdown—see below—and gotten to the playoffs in the same week. Buffalo at Jax not only will pair teams that have gone a combined 27 seasons without a playoff appearance; the contest will pair Williams versus Paul Posluszny, a combined 23 years of two guys performing well in the NFL but never making the postseason.

The Bills have little chance of advancing. But ending their league-worst drought makes their season a success, while they enter with offseason with salary cap space and extra draft picks in the first and second rounds. Just six weeks ago, when head coach Sean McDermott benched Tyrod Taylor and Taylor’s understudy, rookie Nathan Peterman, threw multiple interceptions in a 30-point loss, the first-year head coach was ridiculed by the sportsyak world. Now McDermott is perceived as a rising star. Surely the football gods chortled.

Kansas City. This season Alex Smith became the first NFL quarterback with five consecutive seasons of at least 3,000 passing yards with fewer than 10 interceptions. Yet he’s perceived in Kansas City as a disappointment, leading to the Chiefs’ kings-ransom trade to acquire rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes. One reason for the perception is that Smith is 2-4 in the postseason. Another is expectations: The 49ers gave up on Smith, so Kansas City faithful long have expected to give up on him, too.

Nevertheless, TMQ likes Kansas City over Tennessee in the opening round—and then, who knows? Kareem Hunt is the league’s hottest rookie, and maybe at some juncture the football establishment will notice that former general manager John Dorsey, who was run out of Kansas City on a rail, was the guy who secured Hunt for this franchise. The Chiefs opened the season by handling New England in New England; the personality of that team could reassert itself. The big variable is Andy Reid, who tends to go hyper-conservative in the playoffs, leading to an 11-12 postseason record. Reid must play to win, rather than to avoid losing, if the Chiefs are to advance.

LA/A. The Rams are the year’s best turnaround, from 4-12 to division champs, from last in points scored to first. They mix the very young Sean McVay at head coach with the senior citizen Wade Phillips at defensive coordinator. The latter has shaved four points off the Rams’ average points allowed, and a lot of NFL contests are won by a field goal margin.

There were December conspiracy theories about the Rams trying to manipulate results so that, in the second round, they would face either the Panthers (Phillips has the number of Cam Newton) or the Eagles (no Carson Wentz). But a win against Atlanta in the first round would send LA/A to Minnesota, for the first monster Rams-Vikings game in many moons. That pairing would also have Jared Goff, first choice in his draft year, facing Case Keenum, undrafted.

Tennessee. The Flaming Thumbtacks enter the playoffs on a 1-3 stretch, with a quarterback, Marcus Mariota, who’s thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes. Opponents put up nearly twice as many touchdown receptions versus the Titans as Tennessee recorded versus them, a terrible stat. The Titans played a soft schedule, and still had to struggle at home in their finale, in below-freezing conditions versus a Florida team, to eke out a postseason invite.

In the wild-card round at Kansas City, the Titans’ best chance is to try an Oregon-style game plan and let Mariota run 20 times. Treat yourself to watching #59 for Tennessee: linebacker Wesley Woodyard, who led the Titans this year with 124 tackles. Woodyard did not get scholarship offers from college football’s elite, despite leading his high school to two Georgia state titles, then went undrafted. Today he is among the NFL’s best defensive players.

Philadelphia. The Eagles are a better team than the Packers, which is why the loss of Wentz did not hurt Philadelphia as much as the loss of Aaron Rodgers hurt Green Bay. Still, Wentz is out, and the Eagles soon may join him. The season was a great ride for Philadelphia fans, who are rewarded with a first-round bye and a home playoff game. For the Nesharim to advance, the defense, ranked fourth versus points, must shine. Since Philadelphia will host one of the NFC South teams that are accustomed to ideal playing conditions, Eagles fans will hope for low temperatures and howling winds on gameday.

Carolina. It was not that long ago the Panthers were Super Bowl favorites, so don’t count Carolina out. But the Cats’ mojo is not good. Cam Newton was awful in the regular season finale at Atlanta, repeatedly overthrowing receivers. He targeted Greg Olsen nine times, and connected with him just once. Guard Trai Turner missed the Falcons contest with a concussion, and the Carolina offensive line was porous. On the upside, Carolina is 7-2 since Luke Kuechly returned to action, and a month ago the Panthers defeated the Vikings in a possible NFC title preview. A rematch, unlike last time, would take place up north.

New Orleans. The Saints are on a 7-0 streak at home, where they open the playoffs. The rebuilt New Orleans offensive line allowed just 20 sacks, second-best in the league. Drew Brees still throws the bang slant better than anyone: a slant pass that comes out so fast you can practically hear “bang!” (Watch for it in goal-to-goal situations.) The Saints finished second in points scored and tenth in points allowed. That is a potent combination.

Everyone will comment on Minnesota’s chance to be the first NFL team to play the Super Bowl on its home field: the fixed-roof U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, which will host the big game on Feb. 4. (The 1985 49ers played before their home crowd but not on their home field.) Don’t overlook what can happen to the Saints. Their wild-card game is in the Superdome in New Orleans; if they and the sixth-seeded Falcons beat playoff novices LA/A on the road, their divisional game is in Minnesota; if the Saints win that, the NFC title contest is in either Philadelphia (outdoors) or New Orleans; then the Super Bowl is in Minnesota. This gives New Orleans a legit shot at playing all its postseason games under domes in ideal conditions: what the Saints like best.

Pittsburgh. Let’s cut to the quick—the Steelers will all but certainly have to go to New England, and Bill Belichick consistently wipes the floor with Mike Tomlin. Belichick is 11-3 head-to-head. In the 2017 AFC title game, at New England, Belichick and his staff so thoroughly outcoached Tomlin and his staff that by the fourth quarter, your columnist wanted a high school mercy rule to go into effect. Plus, this season the Patriots really have benefited from the NFL’s new rule that you must score two touchdowns against New England in order for one to count. (See below.)

The Steelers will win their divisional-round game in Pittsburgh, fly to New England, and—no, I can’t go on.

Minnesota. Your columnist loves that the NFC’s best team has an undrafted quarterback who was waived five times. Your columnist loves that in the pass-wacky NFL, the Vikings pull their guards for trap blocks just like the Packers did with Fuzzy Thurston. Your columnist loves that Minnesota has the NFL’s best defense, and in the Super Bowl, defense almost always trumps offense.

And while New Orleans may be able to win the Super Bowl without ever going outdoors, the Vikings may be able to win it without ever leaving their own dome. If a Wentz-less Philadelphia doesn’t win its divisional-round game against New Orleans, Carolina, or Atlanta—three potential opponents with playoff-tested quarterbacks—Minnesota’s path to Minneapolis runs through Minneapolis. So long as they continue winning, there’s a good chance the Vikings get to stay inside—on their comfy-cozy field.

Will Minnesota wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14 in purple) and the Vikings go all the way through the playoffs without ever leaving home? Minnesota defeated Chicago on Sunday 23-10 to finish the regular season with a record of 13-3, good for the second seed in the NFC. (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

New England. The Flying Elvii are favorites to repeat. They enter the postseason first in points scored and fifth in preventing points—statistically, one of the top finishes ever. If all goes well they will win twice on their home field, then advance to Minneapolis where five-ring Tom Brady likely will face a quarterback who has never won the Super Bowl. (New Orleans is the sole NFC contender with a ring-bearing quarterback.)

Plus, the Patriots have Bill Belichick, who after selling his soul to the devil—note to WEEKLY STANDARD fact-checkers, please confirm—has posted more playoff wins than any other NFL coach. Wait, there’s more: Belichick has more playoff victories than all head coaches he could face in this year’s Super Bowl combined. Wait, there’s even more: Belichick has more than twice as many playoff victories (26) as all head coaches he could face in this year’s Super Bowl combined (11).

The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls. If they make it three of four, they will become a pure-dynasty team despite an offense that starts three undrafted free agents (David Andrews, Danny Amendola, and Chris Hogan) and a running back waived by three other clubs (Dion Lewis); and a no-name defense that starts a front seven whose members I dare you to name without peeking.

One, undrafted defensive end Eric Lee personifies how Belichick develops unknowns. It’s like after practice, Belichick drives around Boston till he sees an athletic-looking guy, pulls over, and calls, “Get in the car, you’re starting tomorrow.” This season the Texans cut Lee; they thought he couldn’t play. The Bills cut Lee; they thought he couldn’t play. Belichick put a decal of a flying Elvis on the guy’s head, and he’s starting for the defending champions.

Another, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, epitomizes how Belichick adjutant Ernie Adams studies other teams’ rosters for players that other teams do not know how to use properly. Van Noy was drafted by the Lions. Belichick got him in a trade for practically nothing: He sent the Lions a sixth-round draft choice, getting Van Noy and a seventh-rounder in return. Detroit management, which had planned to cut Van Noy, was happy because sportswriters could be told the player was not a bust, rather, was traded for something Detroit wanted, however meager. Belichick was happy because he knew that he could coach up Van Noy and get a terrific player, which is what the Patriots now have.

Two notes on the Super Bowl favorites Minnesota and New England:

When will it occur to opponents that Tom Brady likes to throw deep on first down? There should be a Patriots drinking game in which you pour a Dry Line Cape Cod Gin each time a defense crowds the box on first down and Brady throws “over the heads” of defenders.

What will happen if James Harrison takes the field versus the Steelers in the AFC title game? Sportsyak assumed Belichick signed the waived Harrison in order to grill him on Pittsburgh signals. Hey, Ernie Adams already knows the Steelers’ signals. Belichick may have signed the former Steelers linebacker because Harrison is really angry at his old team, and will try to hurt someone in the AFC title game. Harrison has consistently been a dirty player, going back at least to the moment when he punched an Arizona Cardinal in the face in the Super Bowl. Fielding a dirty player should no longer have any place in the NFL. But now Belichick has one, ready to be unleashed against the Steelers.

In other football news, Sunday’s slate included many performances by eliminated teams to whom the day’s result meant nothing—and yet once again, no head coach used the opportunity for a real-world test of whether not punting would improve the chance of victory.

Boom, boom, boom went the fraidy-cat punts by losing teams. Trailing defending champion New England 14-3, Jersey/B punted near midfield. Entering the game 7-8, eliminated Green Bay punted from the Detroit 39. Their head coach likely to be fired the next day regardless of the outcome, the Bears punted on 4th-and-2 when the score was close. At the two-minute warning, with Minnesota in command—when it makes no difference what tactics Chicago uses, and thus the coach won’t be criticized—then the Bears went for it on 4th-and-2.

Typically, head coaches of losing teams play it ultra-conservative in the season finale, hoping to hold down the margin of defeat so they are less likely to be cashiered the following day.

Stats of the Week #1. Case Keenum’s 12 victories was more wins than he’d had in the previous five seasons of his NFL career combined.

Stats of the Week #2. Coming into the 2017 season head coaches Jim Caldwell of Detroit and Jack del Rio of Oakland signed what were announced as long-term contract extensions: Both were fired. In 2016, head coach Chuck Pagano of Indianapolis received what was announced as a long-term contract extension; he was fired, too.

Stats of the Week #3. The Chargers opened 0-4 and closed 9-3.

Stats of the Week #4. The 49ers are on a streak of 5-0 when Jimmy Garoppolo starts versus 3-24 when anyone else is at quarterback.

Stats of the Week #5. Marvin Lewis, who went out with a major victory against Baltimore (denying the Ravens a postseason appearance), appears to have completed a 15-year tenure as head of the Cincinnati Bengals without ever winning a playoff game.

Stats of the Week #6. The University of Miami Hurricanes opened 10-0 and closed 0-3.

Stats of the Week #7. Cleveland has 14 consecutive losses at Pittsburgh.

Stats of the Week #8. The Seahawks have followed a 42-6 stretch in home games with a 1-4 stretch.

Stats of the Week #9. Tom Brady is 60-11 in the month of December.

Stats of the Week #10. Eight of the 12 playoff teams of the 2017 season did not make the playoffs in 2016.

Sweet Postseason-Clinching Plays of the Week. The Bills were already in the clubhouse, as the saying goes, when Cincinnati hit its improbable, long 4th-and-12 touchdown to defeat the Ravens, putting Buffalo into the postseason for the first time in—er, in this century. The Bills were the final franchise of 2017 to earn a playoff invite, and it didn’t happen until 7:56 Eastern on New Year’s Eve, pretty much as late as this can possibly happen.

Earlier, New Orleans had surrendered a long touchdown to City of Tampa with seconds remaining in Saints at Buccaneers. But pretty much simultaneously, Carolina lost a comeback bid at Atlanta, giving New Orleans the division title.

The two postseason invitations that were settled at the very close of the regular season in both cases involved the happy teams (Buffalo and New Orleans) needing other teams to seal their deals. Sweet!

Bonus Sweet Play. Buffalo leading 13-0 at Miami, the visitors reached 1st-and-goal on the hosts’ 1. The Bills came out with defensive lineman Kyle Williams as lead blocker of an offset-I backfield. The play was a “belly”—a quick hitter, normally to the fullback, in this case to the extra blocker. The 300-pound Williams went straight ahead for the first touchdown of his 12-year career.

That wasn’t the sweet part. The sweet part was that the entire Buffalo offensive line did a choreographed celebration, which means that this week at practice, the big guys were rehearsing choreography.

Sour Plays by the Fourth-Ranked Defense. 10-point underdog Cincinnati leading 7-3, the Bengals had 3rd-and-goal on the Baltimore 5. Tight end Tyler Kroft lined up wide versus rookie safety Chuck Clark. At the snap, Kroft stumbled to the ground. Clark then ignored Kroft as he got up and ran, uncovered, to the back of the end zone for the touchdown that gave the underdogs a 14-3 margin and started the home-crowd booing. Put the deliberate-stumble pattern into the playbook!

Now it’s Baltimore leading 27-24 with 53 seconds remaining, the underdogs facing 4th-and-12 and out of time outs. All the Ravens need is an incomplete pass, and they’re in the playoffs. All the Ravens need is an incompletion! Yet Baltimore lines up seven men in the box, as if to mega-blitz.

It’s not a mega-blitz, and instead three defenders from the box furiously backpedal—why weren’t they deep in the first place? All Baltimore needs is one incompletion and the Ravens make the playoffs! Wide receiver Tyler Boyd runs a short curl, then jukes the nearest Baltimore defender and goes 49 yards for the touchdown that ends the Ravens’ season. The pass defenders’ rule for situations like this is “keeping everything in front of you.” Yet on the down three Ravens—Clark, Maurice Canday, and Eric Weddle, who just made the Pro Bowl—got caught behind Boyd, covering no one at all. Cue long, loud booing from a crowd that sat through a contest with a kickoff temperature of 19 degrees, and saw a terrible performance by the league’s fourth-ranked defense.

And that wasn’t even Baltimore’s worst play of the game. See the end of the column.

Sweet ‘n’ Sour Pairs of Plays. Twice Oakland allowed long touchdown passes by the Chargers on pure busted coverages—sweet for LA/B, which needed to win to keep a slim playoff hope alive, and sour for the disappointing season of the Raiders. On both plays, presnap, a Raiders corner was turning to argue with safety Reggie Nelson about who had the speed guy on their side. Both times, the speed guy blew past them both, not covered by anyone, as the corner and the safety doubled the possession receiver who was crossing short.

If Jon Gruden ends up as head coach of the Raiders, he will have quite a task ahead. This team’s football IQ is low.

Spoiler Alert! Star Wars Episode VIII Spoils the Luke Skywalker Story. Okay, the Star Wars movies are just movies, and though they now add up almost to a full 24-hour day of screen time, there’s a huge amount the flicks don’t even try to explain. Superman movies require audiences to suspend disbelief and accept that a man can fly without lift or thrust; neither the movies nor their underlying comic books even try to explain this. The Wonder Woman movie required audiences to accept that Erich Ludendorff, an actual figure from history, secretly was a warlock with superhuman strength. Meet the Press requires audiences to suspend disbelief and accept that Donald Trump is president of the United States.

Still, sci-fi and fantasy ought to make sense within their premises. If the Amazonian women were placed on Earth by the gods to protect humanity from war, how come they were so oblivious they did not know World War I had been raging all around them for years? That kind of thing makes no sense even within the Wonder Woman premise.

The Last Jedi requires audiences to accept something that makes no sense within the premise—that although spaceships of the Star Wars galaxy move through hyperspace at thousands of times the speed of light, when an ultra-enormous imperial dreadnought is behind a rebel transport ship in normal space, it is impossible for the dreadnought to catch up. About half the movie has the rebel transport refusing to jump to light speed for a convoluted reason, yet the ultra-enormous dreadnought behind the transport cannot get any closer. “We’ll have to keep following them till they run out of fuel,” a smirking bad guy says. Huh? One second of FTL travel would close the gap.

From the moment the Resistance transport and its escort vessels drop out of hyperspace, till the final confrontation a day or two later at the planet Crait (which the rebels are trying to reach), the chase happens below light speed. That means Crait must have been quite close (in galactic terms) at the moment the rebel ships dropped into normal space. So it would have been totally obvious to the bad guys on the imperial warships that the rebels were headed for Crait. The bad guys could have had their menacing gunships use hyperdrive to get to Crait long before the rebels arrived. Instead, the bad guys don’t even notice Crait until Resistance ships start landing there. The bad guys fail to notice an entire planet directly in their path!

Okay, it’s a movie. Let’s suspend disbelief on the techno-nonsense for two points about the storyline: a minor point and a major point.

The minor point is that much of the movie is wasted on tedious subplots that have no apparent purpose other than as filler, or perhaps to convince audiences Rey is the sole person in the entire galaxy who isn’t incredibly stupid.

One subplot involves Finn and a new character named Rose. Despite the fact that the Resistance transport ship is surrounded by a gigantic space armada, Finn and Rose easily break through enemy lines; go in mere seconds to a distant planet to search for a man whose name and face they don’t know; find a different guy and instantly trust him; then break into the Big Bad’s flagship, which turns out to be really easy to break into. Their plan is to open an elaborately locked door (which turns out to be really easy to open) and throw the one single switch that would disable everything, while hoping the entire Imperial battle fleet doesn’t notice. Amazingly, this plan does not work!

Tuesday Morning Quarterback maintains that somewhere deep beneath Hollywood—accessible only by crawling through an airshaft—is an antimatter-powered MacGuffin generator. Apparently showrunners of The Last Jedi input the terms “random action” and “starship” and “which wire should I cut?” into the MacGuffin generator. This time it spit out the Finn-Rose subplot.

Another monotonous subplot involves X-wing space jockey Poe Dameron. He orders the Resistance to engage in a crazed low-probability-of-success attack on an Imperial capital ship. Most of the good guys die, leaving General Organa (née Princess Leia) undefended and soon in coma. A new rebel commander, played by Laura Dern, materializes pretty much out of thin air, and she’s practically wearing a red shirt, which in this context is not a football reference. The Dern character appears to behave irrationally; Poe stages a mutiny; Princess Leia regains consciousness and jails Poe, handing control back to Dern; more rebel ships are destroyed and more pilots die.

Aside: Earth taxis soon will not need drivers but super-advanced Star Wars FLT starfighters need someone holding the stick and yoke while wearing leather jackets and shouting “form up!” and “on your six!” During scenes where Poe flies his starfighter through, of course, a perilous narrow trench, more than once he looks backward over his shoulder. Looking backward over your shoulder is dangerous on a Los Angeles freeway at 70 MPH. Doing this in a manually piloted starship at blur speed would be a great way to make a splat that no one would hear in space.

Only after many Resistance pilots have died needlessly, and precious Resistance ships have been destroyed, does Laura Dern casually tell Poe something that causes her behavior to be revealed as not irrational. WHY DIDN’T SHE SAY THAT BEFORE? In the Harry Potter books, hundreds of pages of nonsense would build up to Dumbledore casually remarking, “Well, Harry, I knew all along that . . .” WHY DIDN’T DUMBLEDORE SAY THAT BEFORE?

Your columnist felt a huge sense of relief when the Laura Dern character honored the red shirt. Her idiocy made audiences appreciate the virtues of Admiral Ackbar, the super-advanced fish who gets fried in a battle scene. The fish admiral performed well because unlike Laura Dern, he shared information with subordinates. He will be missed—and pass the tartar sauce, please.

Footnote: the Laura Dern character saves the day by aiming a rebel vessel toward an imperial dreadnought, engaging the hyperspace drive, and slamming into the bad-guy ship at faster than light, destroying it and her. Not only would a collision such as this release enough energy to obliterate the entire Crab Nebula – if an object moving at FTL velocity can be slammed into a normal-space vessel, why does anyone bother with x-wings and TIE fighters in the first place? The opening move of every space battle would be to accelerate pebbles to FTL and slam them into the enemy. A FTL golf ball ought to be ample to demolish the Death Star.

It was a long, long time ago that Luke Skywalker was the new kid on the block. (Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images)

Now the major point. The Last Jedi already has made a zillion dollars. But any director who had Luke Skywalker for the first time in decades would have experienced a great deal of difficulty avoiding raking in a zillion dollars.

Audiences get their first look at Luke Skywalker in 34 years, and learn . . . practically nothing. Luke receives about the same screen time as the cardboard character Poe. Years have gone by in Luke’s life: We never find out if he fell in love or married, if he had children, what happened between him and his sister and Han Solo in all that time. (Luke won’t appear in the upcoming Solo, a prequel set before events of the first Star Wars flick—that is, at a juncture when Luke was a teen living a mundane life on a farm on Tatooine.) We never find out why Luke has spent years guarding some ancient Jedi scripture, nor do we ever find out what’s in the scripture or what it signifies.

Audiences are told Luke became an embittered recluse after Han’s and Leia’s son Ben went all dark-side under Skywalker’s tutelage. But the young Luke Skywalker overcame Darth Vader and Emperor Palpatine simultaneously, defeating the two most sinister figures in an entire galaxy. Yoda once chose Luke to be the greatest Jedi. In his final appearance we’re supposed to believe that because one thing went wrong with the ungrateful little twerp Ben Solo, Luke spent decades alone and resentful, refusing to help his sister, inured to the suffering of humanity. Talk about a snowflake!

The extremely large Star Wars writing and production team had 34 years to contemplate what happened in Luke’s adulthood, and pulled up barely north of nada.

Fiscal Irresponsibility Lobby Flexes Its Muscle. We live in a moment when Central Park after dark is safe, the Buffalo Bills are in the playoffs, and WEEKLY STANDARD co-founder Bill Kristol criticized a corporate tax cut.

After Comcast declared it would hand workers $1,000-bonuses to celebrate the Donald Trump tax cut, Kristol tweeted, “Don’t the bonuses suggest big corporations didn’t really need a tax cut for capital investment? And if we just want to borrow from the future to give out money today, why the corporate middle man?”

Borrow from the future to give out money today has been the essence of American politics in the 21st century. Since 2000, the U.S. debt has grown from $5.6 trillion to $20.4 trillion—adjusting for inflation, this means more than twice as much federal debt has been added in those 18 years as all debt combined in the previous 211 years of the nation’s existence. Democrats and Republicans alike now cleave to borrow-and-spend without the slightest hint of accountability regarding the nation’s future. There’s been no crackback: no runaway inflation, no refusal of foreign funds to lend anew. So Republicans and Democrats alike borrow-and-spend. Bartender, another round! Debt for everyone!

Republican giveaways to the very rich via tax cuts and Democratic handouts to interest groups via entitlements represent the old indulging themselves and sending the bill to the young. Baby Boomers! As Hans and Franz would say, hear me now and believe me later: When the nation’s finances go haywire, our grandchildren are going to hate us for our irresponsibility with their money. Not be angry with us. Hate us.

Yet theorists of the left never saw a handout they didn’t like, and now leaders of the Grand Old Party couldn’t care less about red ink that “ungenerously throw[s] upon posterity the burden which we ourselves ought to bear,” to quote George Washington.

Some of what’s going on is what the Washington Monthly years ago called a Sliver Strategy. If Democrats hand favors to unions and minority groups, while Republicans hand favors to the super-rich, both sides are rewarded with a sliver of the waste, in the form of campaign donations to incumbents. By wasting lavishly, officials of both parties cling to power.

The disturbing thing about the Sliver Strategy is that government must squander breathtaking amounts to ensure that the sliver going back to insiders looks small by comparison. Waste a billion dollars on the super-rich or on entitlements, while getting $100 million today as campaign donations, and people will say, “Hey, the kickback was 10 percent, that’s too much!” But waste a trillion dollars of our grandchildren’s future while getting $1 billion back as donations and subsidies to insiders: who’s gonna care about a kickback at 0.1 percent?

The Sliver Strategy creates an incentive for members of Congress and cabinet secretaries to burn stupendous sums, in order to waft smoke around the slice that allows them to live as modern aristocracy. Presto, we witness Congress casually burning stupendous sums. Last month Congress threw $1.5 trillion out the window, to ensure donors will pay for the private jets and luxury vacations of Capitol Hill personnel.

Beyond this, far-right and far-left may make common cause in wanting the national debt to skyrocket.

At their cores, far-left types believe government exists to seize the property of the well-off and redistribute it: making everyone equally miserable is their dream.

When the nation’s finances seem basically okay, enforced redistribution is a hard sell. If on the other hand the United States went into a debt death spiral, then we’d have no choice but to seize whatever those at the top possess, using the proceeds to keep society afloat. Thus when Bernie Sanders proposes that all Americans could have Medicare for free and all college tuition be free, and economists protest this would drive the nation’s balance sheet perpetually into the red, the far-left cheers, because what the far-left wants is national financial breakdown.

At their cores, far-right types want government to abandon the social safety net; bringing back the plantation-style feudal economy, in which a few live in mansions while everyone else pleads for crumbs, is their dream.

When the nation’s finances seem basically okay, ending health care assistance and income support is a hard sell. If on the other hand the United States went into a debt death spiral, then we’d have no choice but to cancel today’s generous entitlements, fund nothing beyond tent cities, and let the super-rich lord it over the peasants. Thus when Donald Trump proposes slashing taxes without regard to debt acceleration, the far-right cheers, because what the far-right wants is national financial breakdown.

Of course, most Americans are neither far-left nor far-right. But a worrisome aspect of the 2016 presidential race is that the two candidates who engendered the most excitement—Trump promising magical tax cuts, Sanders promising magical free benefits—were the two whose policies would make the national debt situation worse.

Once the Special Prosecutor Finishes with Trump, He Should Figure Out if the Russians Conspired Against Austin Seferian-Jenkins. NFL ratings, and interest in professional football, continue to sputter, though it’s true ratings for all television offerings are sputtering. There are many explanations for the NFL decline. Is one that bad officiating and overturned touchdowns make the game seem either fixed (worst case) or poorly run (best case)?

Against the Patriots this season, the Jets, Steelers, and Bills had touchdown receptions signaled by the officials standing right next to the receiver—then the league central office overturned the touchdowns, in each instance using shifty weasel words. Two weeks ago, the last-second overturned Pittsburgh touchdown converted a New England defeat into victory, allowing the defending champion to secure home field throughout the AFC postseason. One week ago, an overturned Buffalo touchdown would have given the Bills the lead. Earlier in the season, an overturned Jersey/B touchdown would have pulled the Jets to within three points in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it’s just a total, utter coincidence all these overturned touchdowns benefitted the Patriots! If you don’t believe me, ask Ernie Adams.

The most recent gift to the Patriots occurred on Christmas Eve, when few were watching. An end zone reception signaled touchdown by the official who was standing right next to the receiver was overturned to an incompletion by league headquarters. Officials on the scene admitted they could not explain why the touchdown was reversed. Here’s an explanation—reversal favored the Patriots. That’s all the modern NFL headquarters needs.

That wasn’t the only suspicious reversal in the Christmas Eve contest. Buffalo leading 16-13 in the second half, New England went on 4th-and-1 and was stopped; officials on the field signaled Bills’ ball. Then the ruling was reversed by league headquarters, which ordered the spot advanced far enough for New England to retain possession with a first down; New England scored on the drive. Supposedly, NFL replay review does not reverse judgment calls, only “clear and obvious” errors. Where to spot the advance of a runner in a confused short-yardage situation with jumbled views is a judgment call. Because overturning this judgment call favored the Patriots, the league stepped in. Had everything about the play been the same except New England had stopped Buffalo on 4th-and-1, there’s no chance the league would have stepped in.

Despite being the latest victim of an overturned call benefitting New England, Tyrod Taylor (in white) and the Buffalo Bills eluded elimination from the postseason on Sunday by defeating Miami. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Dynasty teams always have both proponents and detractors—some people like it when the Patriots or Duke basketball constantly win, others don’t. But the sense that the league front office is favoring New England in officiating decisions—four major, highly questionable overturns going the Patriots’ way in the same season—makes professional football seem more like pro wrestling than a fair competition. Ratings and popularity decline in sync.

At Least California Still Has California Girls. For several generations in college football, most games were regional while bowls were few; when cold-weather schools came to California for bowls, players would be wowed by the glamor and the clime, and the West Coast schools would win. For instance, in a 20-year span from 1968 to 1987, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, or Arizona State won 17 Rose Bowls to just three victories for Ohio State or Michigan.

Now that colleges play NFL-length schedules and fly all over the country not just for games but for recruiting camps, the California glam factor is extinguished. This bowl season, the Pac-12 went 1-8 while the cold-weather Big 10 was 7-1.

The Dillon Panthers Never Played 16 Games in a Season. The crazed Texas high school football playoff tourney has come to conclusion, winners in the big-school brackets having completed an NFL-like 16-game season. That’s too much of a good thing, distracting players from the schoolwork and extracurriculars that almost all will need for college admission when, as happens even at top programs in the Lone Star State, recruiters do not come calling for 95 percent of players.

One of the Texas 6A titles went to Houston’s Cy-Fair High, which had not won a state crown in decades. Cy-Fair led Midway 44-7 at the start of the fourth quarter. In this situation, too many high school coaches keep the starters in to run up the score, so they can boast and brag—but also teach the wrong life lesson. Cy-Fair head coach Ed Pustejovsky let some backups play in the fourth quarter. The result was a 51-35 final that made the game look closer than it was—but also a memorable experience for teens who won’t play in college but did get to play on the same field where the Dallas Cowboys perform. Tuesday Morning Quarterback salutes Cy-Fair High School and Pustejovsky for putting sportsmanship ahead of braggadocio.

TMQ contends that the lengthening of high school football seasons—from 10 or 12 a generation ago to 16 for Texas title participants, and 15 in Virginia—actively harms high-school boys, while helping only boosters, promoters, coaches seeking college jobs, and principals angling for promotions.

Reader Brent Goodrich of Chandler, Arizona, reports that Chandler High School is seeking publicity regarding scheduling 30 games over two seasons. Chandler principal Larry Rother boasted to USA Today about how great is was that the school was playing more games. Rother should be apologizing for trying to sabotage his own students! The way this works is that when Chandler plays on ESPN, the school, and its principal, receive attention. The guys who play are used up and thrown away, but who cares about them—or their grades?

Next Year Black Monday Will Be Formally Scheduled on Black Friday. Black Monday included defensive coordinator Dom Capers being fired by the Packers. Somebody had to be scapegoated for Green Bay’s disappointing season, even if an injury to Aaron Rodgers was the root cause; Mike McCarthy won the internal power struggle to have Capers, rather than McCarthy, be the one who got blamed.

Packers faithful have been exorcised about Capers for several seasons, in part because the odd front he likes—only two defensive linemen in what’s essentially a 2-4-5—has not taken the league by storm. Over the past five seasons, the Green Bay defense averaged 18th versus points. That’s not terrible but not impressive, either, especially considering lots of high draft choices on defense. With Capers blamed and cashiered, will the Packers be any better stopping opponents next season?

Buck-Buck-Brawckkkkkkk (Bowl Edition). Trailing 21-7 In the Fiesta Bowl, the University of Washington punted on 4th-and-short in Penn State territory. Penn State needed just two snaps to pass the point where the ball would have been had UDub gone for it and failed, as the score increased to Penn State by 28-7. Ultimately Washington lost by a touchdown.

As the punt boomed, ESPN announcer Dave Pasch opined, “It would have been quite the risk for Washington to go for it.” When the punt backfired spectacularly, Pasch and the rest of the ESPN broadcast team said nothing about that. This is yet another example of how the football establishment encourages punting on 4th-and-short, depicting going for it as some kind of gigantic gamble—often, it’s playing the percentages—while saying nothing when fraidy-cat kicks backfire. In turn, coaches order punts on 4th-and-short because they know they will never be criticized for playing it safe, since announcers and sportswriters don’t understand fourth-down math.

The 500 Club. In the Rose Bowl (now the Rose Bowl Game at the Rose Bowl), Oklahoma gained 531 yards, and lost.

The 600 Club (Bowl Edition). In the Belk Bowl, Texas A&M gained 614 yards, scored 52 points, and lost.

Single Worst Play of the Season—So Far. Playing at home, Baltimore needed a win or a tie to clinch a playoff invite. Cincinnati, on the road, already had been eliminated, with nothing on the line. Bengals leading 17-10, the hosts took the second-half kickoff and drove to the Cincinnati 22. A Joe Flacco pass bounced off a receiver’s hands and was intercepted by Darqueze Dennard.

All 11 Cincinnati players went into max-effort mode—while many of the Ravens just stood around watching. Because the initial play-fake had gone left, many Ravens were on the left side of the field as Dennard started up the right sideline. Dennard was running along the Cincinnati sideline, where teammates and coaches were urging him on, and urging other Bengals to block. On the opposite sideline, Baltimore players and coaches stood with hands on hips, as if bored.

By the time Dennard broke into the clear, most of the Bengals defense was downfield, surrounding him, while many from the Ravens offense had decided to take the down off. Baltimore wide receiver Chris Moore, whose bobble caused the interception, initially just laid on the turf, watching. Trailing the runner, Baltimore wide receiver Michael Campanaro started jogging, quitting on the play, when Dennard was still 30 yards from paydirt. And Campanaro is a speed guy!

Dennard put up an 89-yard touchdown return in a contest the visitors would win by four points. Bored, yawning, jogging Baltimore offensive personnel: You are guilty of the single worst play of the 2017 season. So far.

Next Week. As the NFL postseason, ostensibly the whole point of the annual pro football exercise, begins, half the country’s fans tune out and switch to obsessing over mock drafts.