Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he may have found his offramp: the Russian-occupied territories of southeastern Ukraine. The Kremlin is rushing referendum votes in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in order that they join Russia before Ukraine can liberate them.
Putin’s “special military operation” failed to secure Kyiv at the outset of the war, or the eastern and southern oblasts during Russia’s military reset phase. Now, the Crimea, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts are in doubt with Ukrainian counteroffensives. The harsh winter Putin so desperately needs is months away. Instead of a Russian victory parade rolling down the streets of Kyiv, Putin’s army abandoned its positions and retreated to the Russian border at full speed under the withering and unrelenting pressure of a highly motivated Ukrainian military hellbent on liberating its country. Putin, unwilling to acknowledge defeat, is now announcing the mobilization of at least 300,000 reserve forces.
Putin’s accompanying political narrative will eventually declare the Russian-speaking oblasts as Russian territory. Putin would then claim that any attack on them by Ukraine or NATO would be seen as an attack on the Russian motherland, justifying even the use of nuclear weapons. As former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev argued, the referendums would “fold regions into Russia itself, would make redrawn frontiers irreversible, and enable Moscow to use any means to defend them.”
But as ESPN host Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.”
On the world stage, sham referendums and annexations will not be recognized. Not by Ukraine, NATO, the European Union, the United States, or the United Nations. But this effort will also pose challenges at home. The very hint of Putin’s mobilization address caused the Russian stock market to crash. Getting 300,000 reservists to report to duty may be a big challenge. Training and equipping them will be even harder.
Ukraine must continue its push to liberate its territory. The West must counter the Kremlin’s narrative and stand by Ukraine. Legitimacy of occupation, depopulation, war crimes, and forced annexation cannot be tolerated by the free world.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022. Mark Toth, a retired economist, historian, and entrepreneur, has worked as an executive in a variety of commercial banking, insurance, publishing, and global commerce fields. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.
