Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks he may have found his offramp: the Russian-occupied territories of southeastern Ukraine. The Kremlin is rushing referendum votes in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in order that they join Russia before Ukraine can liberate them.

Putin’s “special military operation” failed to secure Kyiv at the outset of the war, or the eastern and southern oblasts during Russia’s military reset phase. Now, the Crimea, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts are in doubt with Ukrainian counteroffensives. The harsh winter Putin so desperately needs is months away. Instead of a Russian victory parade rolling down the streets of Kyiv, Putin’s army abandoned its positions and retreated to the Russian border at full speed under the withering and unrelenting pressure of a highly motivated Ukrainian military hellbent on liberating its country. Putin, unwilling to acknowledge defeat, is now announcing the mobilization of at least 300,000 reserve forces.