CARTER IN IRAQ: Defense Secretary Ash Carter stopped in Baghdad today and, as is the routine for security reasons, his visit was not announced ahead of time. Carter told reporters traveling with him that the capture of a strategic air base south of Mosul is the latest evidence that Iraqi forces are continuing to isolate the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Iraq, as it prepares for the future offensive to retake Mosul. While in Baghdad, Carter will meet with Iraqi officials and U.S. commanders. Don’t expect him to linger in the war zone for very long.
NEW ANTI-ISIS COMMANDER: As Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland’s tour as the field commander in the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is in its last months, sources say his replacement will be XVIII Airborne commander Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan. No official announcement yet.
DEFEATING “ISIS-STAN”: Michèle Flournoy, who many think would have the inside track to be the next defense secretary in a Hillary Clinton administration, outlined a four-point strategy to death the Islamic State in an opinion piece in the Washington Post. In a nutshell: more support for local forces, expanding raids and strikes, get more countries into the battle, and focus on governing after ISIS is gone.
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OBAMA TO DALLAS: Back from the NATO summit in Warsaw, President Obama is planning to go to Dallas tomorrow to speak at a memorial service for the five murdered police officers, amid word that the sniper, a Army veteran, may have been planning a wider attack. Dallas Police Chief David Brown told CNN yesterday, “We’re convinced this suspect had other plans and thought that what he was doing was righteous.”
On Friday, it was revealed that Micah Johnson was in the Army Reserve and deployed to Afghanistan as part of an engineering battalion. A day later, it came to light that a fellow soldier accused Johnson of sexual harassment while in Afghanistan and he was sent home. Despite a recommendation Johnson receive an other-than-honorable discharge, he received an honorable, which baffled the attorney who represented him. “Someone really screwed up,” Bradford Glendening said. “But to my client’s benefit.”
‘HIGH RISK’ PRISONER: Fayiz Ahmad Yahia Suleiman, labeled a “high risk” to the U.S., has been transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Italy. That reduces the inmate population at Guantanamo to 78. Of that number, 28 have been approved for transfer to some other country. The Obama administration is still seeking permission from Congress to transfer some hard core prisoners to the U.S., which is unlikely, but seems to have all but given up closing the facility before Obama leaves office. The strategy now seems to get the prison population down to such a small number that it becomes very costly, on a per-prisoner basis, to keep it open.
BIN LADEN’S SON VOWS REVENGE: Hamza bin Laden, son of the architect of 9/11, gave a recent speech rallying al-Qaida operatives to strike against the U.S. “Hamza provides a new face for al Qaeda, one that directly connects to the group’s founder,” the Brookings Institution’s Bruce Reidel said. “He is an articulate and dangerous enemy.”
NDAA TO CONFERENCE: Eighteen Republican and 13 Democratic representatives will make up part of the committee that negotiates differences between the House and Senate versions of the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act now that the bill has officially gone to conference. The full list of conferees for the House side was announced on Friday. Staff will now begin the work of ironing out differences in the two bills, including the funding mechanism and major reforms to the acquisition and Goldwater Nichols organizational systems.
NATIONAL SECURITY BRIEFING: This weekend, the Washington Examiner wrapped up its six-part series called “Donald Trump’s Briefing Book,” which looks at ways the GOP and Trump should be shaping several policy areas, at least according to conservative thinkers. Part six, which focused on national security, took a look at the defense budget, how the party should handle the Middle East and terrorism, and what it should be doing regarding nuclear-armed peer competitors.
GENERAL ADMISSION: Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, whose often named as a potential running mate for Trump, is out with an op-ed saying the Obama administration fired him “for calling our enemies radical jihadis,” Joel Gehrke reports. Flynn, who was fired in 2014, also wrote that “the Islamic world is an epic failure” and said he was trying to change the culture of the Defense Intelligence Agency “from one overly focused on Washington, D.C., to a culture that focused on our forward-based warfighters and commanders.”
If Trump does indeed tap Flynn for veep, there’s one issue that could cause trouble among Republican voters, Gehrke also writes.
SEEING STARS: So last week, Trump mentioned there were two generals he was interested in. Everyone knew Flynn was one, but who is the other? Turns out it’s retired Gen. Stan McChrystal, who also ran afoul of the Obama administration.
“POWERFUL” THREATS FROM NORTH KOREA: It would be bigger news if North Korea didn’t react angrily to the joint U.S.-South Korean announcement that the THAAD anti-missile system will soon be deployed to bolster the South’s missile defenses. The latest bellicose bluster from Pyongyang threatened vague “powerful” measures in response, which was also variously translated as a “physical response.”
That comes as South Korean officials say the North’s test of a submarine-launched missile over the weekend appears to have flopped. A South Korean defense ministry spokesman is quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying “After its ejection from underwater, the projectile appeared to have failed in its early stage of flight.”.
AWAITING THE S. CHINA SEA VERDICT: The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, is expected to rule tomorrow on China’s claims to the South China Sea in a case brought in 2013 by the Philippines over the disputed Scarborough Shoals. Abraham Denmark, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, told Congress last week the U.S. has been quietly urging Beijing to accept the court’s ruling, but there’s no sign China will be willing to give up its claims, no matter the verdict. Denmark says the Chinese reaction will set the tone for how other disputes are resolved whether by “adherence to international laws and norms” or “by raw calculations of power.”
TARGETED KILLING: A lawsuit alleges that the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad used intercepted communications and an informant to deliberately blanket an area of Homs to kill an American war correspondent, who was working for the Sunday Times of London. The lawsuit, filed on behalf of the family of 56-year-old Marie Colvin, has been posted by The Washington Post. It argues Colvin was deliberately targeted to silence her reporting on civilian casualties in Homs in 2012.
DIVE! DIVE! DIVE! The Los Angeles-class attack submarine San Francisco celebrated its 1,000th dive by bringing us along. Check out the video here and see what it’s like to be on the outside of an attack boat when it dives and surfaces.
THE RUNDOWN:
Breaking Defense: F-35 Could Be Deployed To Mideast Soon; Brexit Dominates NATO Summit
Defense One: How The Myth of An EU Army Bolstered The Brexit Vote
Military.com: Will Brexit Affect the Farnborough Airshow? Experts Divided
Defense News: F-35 to Tap Airbus for Data Protection Technology
Politico: Defense filibuster brings budget appropriations season to a halt
USNI News: Navy To Request Ohio Replacement Program Milestone B Decision This Summer
Defense News: Boeing Likely To Market Mysterious Trainer Outside US
The Washington Post: After investigation, Navy lowers ‘American Sniper’ Chris Kyle’s medal count
Task and Purpose: Why Clinton’s Emails Shouldn’t Be Compared To Petraeus’ Case
Defense News: As Air Force Shrinks, Officials Look For New Ways to Amass Firepower
Air Force Times: General: Rising threats could change ‘permanent force’ goal in Europe
UPI: Russia has $4.6B in military exports in 2016
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Airstrikes, Afghan Forces Blunt Islamic State Advances
Calendar
TUESDAY | JULY 12
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts its sixth annual South China Sea conference. csis.org
9:30 a.m. SVC 217. Senate Armed Services Committee hold a closed hearing on national security and encryption challenges. armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. Cannon 311. House Homeland Security Committee will discuss the vulnerability of cyberspace and infrastructure to terrorist attacks. homeland.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | JULY 13
7:15 a.m. The Ritz-Carlton, Pentagon City. Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, speaks at a Navy League breakfast. navyleague.org
10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. House Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing to discuss the State Department’s performance on countering the virtual caliphate. foreignaffairs.house.gov
10 a.m. Cannon 311. House Homeland Security Committee will discuss insider threats and counterintelligence. homeland.house.gov
10:30 a.m. Senate Appropriations Committee reviews budget requirements and justifications for the nuclear cruise missile. appropriations.senate.gov
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. CSIS hosts a discussion on harnessing new technological innovations for strategic effect in the 21st Century. csis.org
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts Retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to discuss his new book on winning the war against radical Islam. heritage.org
1:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. CIA Director John Brennan talks strategy at the Brookings Institution in the face of emerging challenges around the globe. brookings.edu
2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Wilson Center hosts a discussion on what lies ahead for TSA. wilsoncenter.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. House Armed Services Committee will hear from Air Combat Command commander Gen. Herbert Carlisle on the critical role of the F-35 for air dominance. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee host a panel of top generals and Defense Department officials to discuss President Obama’s nuclear deterrent modernization. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Committee hosts a panel to discuss oversight of the European reassurance initiative. armedservices.house.gov
3:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Hudson Institute hosts Sens. Tom Cotton and Jon Kyl, and retired Gen. Charles Jacoby to discuss the future of space defense and missile technology. hudson.org
4:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council hosts Adm. Kurt Tidd, commander of U.S. Southern Command, to discuss strategy. atlanticcouncil.org
THURSDAY | JULY 14
10 a.m. Cannon 311. House Homeland Security committee will discuss the new wave of terror to the homeland. homeland.house.gov
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Heritage Foundation hosts former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz to discuss his new book on the nuclear deal with Iran. heritage.org
