Daily on Defense — Oct. 12, 2016 — Yemen-Saudi conflict in spotlight

The U.S. says the attack on the funeral, which was attended by some of the Houthi rebel leaders, continued a troubling pattern of attacks striking Yemeni civilians. “U.S. security cooperation with Saudi Arabia is not a blank check,” said NSC Spokesman Ned Price in a statement over the weekend. “Even as we assist Saudi Arabia regarding the defense of their territorial integrity, we have and will continue to express our serious concerns about the conflict in Yemen and how it has been waged.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. is contemplating a military strike of its own against the Houthis, in retaliation for a failed missile attack against two U.S. ships in the Red Sea Sunday. Two missiles were launched about an hour apart from Houthi-held territory along the Yemeni coast. The missiles were aimed at the USS Mason and USS Ponce, which were in international waters, and according to the Pentagon, not part of the forces supporting the Saudi-led coalition. USNI news reports the Mason, a guided-missile destroyer fired three missiles and deployed an anti-ship missile decoy in defense. Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis says the U.S. is still assessing who was responsible for the attack, but said all evidence points to Houthi rebels.  And he all but promised a counter-strike would be coming. “Anybody who takes action, fires against U.S. Navy ships operating in international waters, does so at their own peril,” Davis warned. “We will find out who did this and we will take action accordingly.”

CHECK YOUR CALENDAR: Despite Donald Trump’s plea for the U.S. military to stop talking about the impending Mosul offensive, the Pentagon keeps dropping hints that the Iraqi operation to liberate the city from the Islamic State will begin very soon. “I think we’ve told you before that you could logically expect them to be ready in October,” Davis said of the U.S.-trained Iraqi forces. “Check your calendar.”  

The Pentagon is trying very hard to steer clear of anything that smacks of presidential politics, but Davis did offer an explanation about why Iraq is being so transparent about its plans to retake Mosul. “These are statements that the government of Iraq has made and they have been very forthcoming about what the plan is,” Davis said. “They are done largely in the name of warning civilians in Mosul to be ready for it, and to try to get out if they can.” In response to Trump’s charge that the advance word was allowing ISIS leaders to escape Mosul, Davis said he wouldn’t discuss the intelligences about the status of Islamic State forces, but noted if ISIS forces flee the city they are much easier to target from the air.

This morning, the U.S. military’s chief spokesman in Baghdad Col. John Dorrian will provide an update on “shaping operations” for the Mosul offensive, along with details of progress in the Euphrates River Valley, and operations in Manbij, Syria. 11 a.m. on www.defense.gov

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.

CHANGES TO SASC: With the chances growing that Republicans lose their majority in the Senate after next month’s election, change could be coming to the Senate Armed Services Committee. Chairman John McCain appears comfortably ahead in his reelection bid, but if the Democrats take over the Senate, McCain would likely cede the gavel to ranking Democrat Sen. Jack Reed. Three other SASC senators are up for reelection: Kelly Ayotte, Mike Lee and Richard Blumenthal, but only Ayotte appears in danger of losing.

If any other those senators lose their seats or their positions, it raises questions over Pentagon acquisition reform, and could shift the panel’s emphasis on such programs as the A-10, littoral combat ships and the next class of aircraft carriers.

A PERILOUS POINT: The relationship between Russia and the U.S. has gotten so bad that because of it, the window to a nuclear-free world is slowly closing, according to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union. “I think the world has reached a dangerous point,” Gorbachev said. “I don’t want to give any concrete prescriptions, but I do want to say that this needs to stop. We need to renew dialogue. Stopping it was the biggest mistake.”

FEAR THE SHIELD: In the latest sign tensions are growing between the Washington and Moscow, the Russian military says it will cooperate with China on efforts to counter the  perceived threat posed by the U.S. missile defense program. Lt. Gen. Viktor Poznikhir of the Russian military’s General Staff accused the Pentagon of developing the shield as part of planning for a possible first nuclear strike. “The missile defense system considerably shifts the balance of offensive weapons, allowing the planning of a more efficient pre-emptive strike,” he said at a security conference in China. The United States has consistently argued its ballistic missile defense is aimed at “rogue nations,” and that its limited ability to shot down one or two missiles at best, would be of no use against Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal.

Meanwhile in a sign that relations between Moscow and Ankara are warming, Turkey has invited Russia to bid on a contract for Turkey’s first long-range air and anti-missile defense system, according to Defense News. With Russia in the mix, the competition becomes a three-way race, with the other two bidders being Eurosam and a consortium of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.

ANKARA’S NOT WITH HER: Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim is questioning if Turkey would still be an ally of the U.S. under a Hillary Clinton presidency, after the Democratic nominee said during Sunday night’s debate that she would consider arming the Kurds, a partner in the U.S. fight against ISIS who is seen as a terrorist group by the Turks. “Clinton has said she would support Kurds in the region, terrorist organizations, with arms if she is elected. What does that mean? Is the U.S. not our ally? What does it mean to support them with arms?” Yildirim said Tuesday. “They supposedly fight against Daesh [Islamic State] by arming the YPG, which is an offshoot of the PKK.”

BACK TO THE TABLE: Both candidates’ strategies for Syria will require them to restart negotiations with Russia in the next administration, according to Matthew Rojansky of the Wilson Center. Trump and Clinton have both voiced support for a no-fly zone or a safe zone, but Rojansky said that, in an environment such as Syria where Russia is the dominant air power, that’s impossible to do without getting Russia on board. “We can say we’re leaving the table, but we’re going to be right back there with the next administration,” Rojansky said Tuesday.

PAY BACK ON THE WAY: Secretary of State John Kerry promised that the U.S. would retaliate against Russia’s attempts to meddle in the outcome of America’s election, Joel Gehrke reports. “We will and can respond in ways that we choose to at the time of our choice,” Kerry said after the administration formally accused Russia for a series of politically-charged hacks of the Democratic National Committee.

The rhetoric was similar at the White House yesterday, where spokesman Josh Earnest said the U.S. response to the Russian hacks will be “proportional,” Rudy Takala writes. “It is unlikely that our response would be announced in advance. It’s certainly possible that the president could choose response options that we never announce.”

The Russian ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Kislyak, said Washington’s accusations are based on bad intel, and even played the Iraq card, Anna Giaritelli writes. “We have seen a number of statements by our colleagues in American intelligence on a number of issues that weren’t exactly true in history. I can give you a number of examples,” Kislyak said at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Kislyak noted America’s mistaken belief that Iraq held weapons of mass destruction, and a recent U.S. strike on a Syrian Army position in Syria, which the U.S. later said was a mistake. “We do not interfere into internal affairs in the United States, not by my statements not by electronic or other means,” Kislyak added.

GOLD STAR FATHER ON TRUMP: Khizr Khan, whose son was killed in Iraq, said he was “saddened all over again” by Trump bringing up his son again during Sunday night’s debate, during which the GOP nominee said the Army captain would still be alive if he had been president. “This candidate lacks the character, lacks the ability to understand the pain of those that have sacrificed their lives in defense of this country,” Khan told CNN on Tuesday. “And for this candidate to put his political expediency ahead of any realization of pain and suffering of the families is shameful.”

HUNGARY MARKS THE DATE: Hungary’s Defense Minister István Simicskó visits the Pentagon today. Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work will greet him, and participate in a ceremony commemorating Hungary’s 60th anniversary of the 1956 uprising against the former Soviet-backed government.

NAME CHANGE: At the Pentagon yesterday, spokesman Davis noted that with the impending fall of Dabiq, Syria, the Islamic State had to rename Dabiq, its glossy propaganda magazine. Dabiq is a key site in Muslim apocalypse theology. Davis did not know the new name, but was pretty sure it was not ISIS Today.

THE RUNDOWN:

New York Times: Pentagon Confronts a New Threat From ISIS: Exploding Drones

Defense One: US Allows Qatar to Buy F-15s — and Seals a $19B Sale of Jetliners

UPI: GenDyn unit to support U.S. Special Operations

Breaking Defense: State’s New Armed Drone Policy Confuses Ends With Means

Wall Street Journal: Russia’s Vladimir Putin Cancels Paris Trip Amid Differences Over Syria

Defense One: The US Accused Russia of Hacking. What Happens Next Will Set a Cyber War Precedent

The Intercept: U.S. military operations are biggest motivation for homegrown terrorists, FBI study finds

Wall Street Journal: Militant Attack on Shiite Shrine in Afghan Capital Kills at Least 14 People

Washington Post: ISIS used an armed drone to kill two Kurdish fighters and wound French troops, report says

USNI News: Former Diplomat: Middle East on the Edge of Political, Social Implosion

Associated Press: Duterte on U.S. alliance: ‘Do you really think we need it?’

Reuters: After failed coup, what sort of Turkey does Erdogan want?

Army Times: ‘Objective T’: The Army’s new mission to track training

Navy Times: Navy’s long deployment pay OK’d for a year, but threatened by future budget cuts

Military Times: Launch of new military health records system delayed until early 2017

Breaking Defense: US, UK In Giant Drone Wargame Off Scotland

Task and Purpose: In Combat, There Isn’t Always A Choice Between Right And Wrong

—————————

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12

7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington. Lt. Gen. Gina Grosso, the deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services, speaks at an Air Force Association breakfast event. afa.org  

10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Peter Lavoy, senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council, talks about security cooperation between the U.S. and India. csis.org

11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Air Force Col. John Dorrian, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve briefs the media on operations in Iraq and Syria. Live streamed on www.defense.gov

12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus speaks at a National Press Club luncheon. press.org

MONDAY | OCTOBER 17

10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, talks about his new book, Ike’s Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East. brookings.edu

12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Officials will talk about remaining priorities for the U.S. while it holds rotating chairmanship of the Arctic Council. atlanticcouncil.org

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 18

8 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Retired Gen. Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA, speaks at the start of a morning event on cyber security challenges for the next administration. heritage.org

8:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Think tank experts discuss how the Pentagon can develop alternative defense strategies. csbaonline.org

8:30 a.m. Albuquerque, NM. CSIS hosts the second of a two-part Project on Nuclear Issues conference. All speakers and presentations are off-the-record. csis.org

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Systems Curt Dukes gives an update on the U.S. cyber defenses. aei.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former service leaders discuss how to use public-private partnerships to invest in defense infrastructure. csis.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Adm. Kurt Tidd, the commander of U.S. Southern Command, talks about maritime security. csis.org

12 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Former B-2 bomber pilots speak about the importance of long-range strike capabilities on the 15th anniversary of the longest bombing run. mitchellaerospacepower.org

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Atlantic Council presents its new paper on a 10-year plan for U.S.-Iran relations. atlanticcouncil.org

3:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Retired Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, the former deputy supreme allied commander for Europe, talks about whether armed conflict with Russia is a real possibility. brookings.edu

4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts talks about the cybersecurity threats facing the presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org