Despite candidate Obama’s repeated statements that he would be willing to talk to our enemies, including Iran, President Obama has yet to fully engage Tehran. Beyond a public message to the people of Iran on the occasion of the Persian New Year, a letter to the Iranian government inquiring about detained Americans, and a handshake or two at international meetings, the administration has yet to venture much beyond the Bush administration’s Iran policy. Reports indicate that the Obama administration has decided to wait until after Iran’s June 12 presidential elections to make any grand gestures in the hope that the election of a more moderate president might weaken the position of hardliners in Tehran opposed to reconciliation with the West. A report released on May 4 prepared by the staff of the normally pro-engagement Senate Foreign Relations Committee reminds us that once he begins to engage, President Obama will not have much time to do so before he might be sitting across the table from a nuclear Iran. “While there are open questions about Iran’s progress on a warhead, the time frame for substantive action by the international community is narrowing and the road to a solution could be long.” The report, based on interviews with officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency and U.S. and foreign officials, provides an excellent summary of the status of Iran’s nuclear program and the history of Iran’s habitual duplicity about its nuclear efforts. The report notes that prior to Iran’s supposed halt of its military nuclear program in 2003, some foreign officials believe that “Iran had produced a suitable design, manufactured some components and conducted enough successful explosives tests to put the project on the shelf until it manufactured the fissile material required for several weapons.” As far as that fissile material is concerned, according to the report, “The estimated one ton of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride produced [at Natanz] as of mid-February is enough for a single nuclear weapon, when converted to [highly enriched uranium] through further enrichment, according to most estimates.” As for the missile that Iran would need to deliver a nuclear weapon, the report states that “Iran’s launch of a satellite into orbit in early February raised concerns that Tehran is improving its ability to deploy long-range ballistic missiles at the very time it is making progress on its nuclear program.” In sum, Iran is on the brink of what some have called a virtual nuclear capability, whereby all that will stand between Iran and a nuclear weapon are the inclinations of Iran’s leaders and the several months to a year necessary to finalize their work. Without a clear time limit, negotiations run the risk of allowing Iran more time to develop its nuclear program and unless Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli Air Force take action, presenting their negotiating partner, President Obama, with a fait accompli.
